English Premier
2021-08-14 - Burnley vs Brighton
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Saturday 14th August 2021 - Kick Off 3pm
Burnley
Keeping hold of Sean Dyche as manager is as close to guaranteeing Premier League Football for another season as Burnley can get, but the takeover last December has yet to loosen the purse strings like the manager may have expected. It means Burnley are going in with an experienced squad, but one that is not the deepest and Sean Dyche could find it very difficult keeping them afloat this time around.
Last season Burnley finished 17th in the Premier League table and, while they never looked like going down, it is their lowest finish in the top flight since returning in 2016. Five successive years in the Premier League is a huge achievement for Burnley, but Sean Dyche will want to see a much stronger season at Turf Moor where they finished with a 4-6-9 record in 2020/21.
Burnley were beaten in 4 of their last 5 Premier League games, including their last 3, and that has to be a slight concern for all those associated with the club. They lost their last 4 at Turf Moor in the Premier League too and Burnley suffered heavy 0-4 and 0-3 defeats to Leeds United and Liverpool respectively in their last fixtures played at this ground.
The arrival of Nathan Collins is the only significant piece of business by Burnley this summer and it could mean the departure of James Tarkowski. For now the Tarkowski-Ben Mee partnership is intact, while Matthew Lowton should be passed fit. Both Kevin Long and Dale Stephens are doubtful for the opening weekend.
Brighton
Those who tend to put a lot of stock in the underlying numbers will be the first to tell you that Brighton massively underachieved last season. Graham Potter might have been targeted for a bigger job if Brighton had secured the kind of results they arguably deserved, but he will believe he can build on the 16th place finish last season and perhaps even lead The Seagulls to their best League finish ever.
Previously the best finish for Brighton was earned at the end of the 1981/82 season when ending up in 13th in the old First Division, but the least they will be targeting this season is surpassing 15th place which is the highest finish since returning to the top flight. Home form was the problem for Brighton last season, but they did have a respectable enough 5-5-9 record away from The Amex Stadium.
Brighton won just 2 of their last 9 Premier League games, but one of those saw them come from 0-2 down to beat Manchester City 3-2 at home. They failed to win any of their last 5 away League games and Brighton were beaten in 4 of those and conceded at least twice in 3 of the defeats suffered.
Creating chances has not been an issue for Brighton, but they have surprisingly not added another forward to the options for the manager. Danny Welbeck has been ruled out until September and Ben White has been sold for a huge fee so there is a potential for more business before the transfer window closes. Tariq Lamptey and Dan Burn are also expected to miss out this weekend.
Head to Head
Both Premier League games between these clubs ended in draws last season.
Burnley have only won 1 of their last 7 home games against Brighton, but 4 of the last 6 have ended in draws including when they met in February.
Prediction
Both Burnley and Brighton have to be very happy with the fact they have kept hold of their managers through the summer and both Sean Dyche and Graham Potter are going to be massively important for their respective clubs over the course of the season.
It was so important for Burnley to keep hold of Sean Dyche who has shown he has all of the ability to extract everything out of this squad. He has largely kept Burnley clear of the relegation fight, but Dyche has not been as backed in the transfer market as he would have hoped since the takeover of the club was confirmed.
The January window may have come too soon, but only Nathan Collins has arrived so far in the summer and Burnley are a couple of serious injuries away from struggling. At least they are going into the season with the key players available and with Chris Wood back from the Olympic Games after representing New Zealand.
A strong start will be important for Burnley who ended last season in miserable form. They suffered some heavy defeats at home and the form at Turf Moor will have to be improved significantly if Burnley are going to avoid the drop, but having the fans returning will be a boost.
Brighton are a tough opening fixture for Burnley and one that may give the fans some concern as to the direction the season could be heading. Last season Brighton only finished 2 points above Burnley, but this is a progressive team who would likely be much higher up the League standings if they can find someone to put a clinical touch to all of the build up play.
It may be possible for Brighton to find the improvement in the final third within the squad, but I do think they need to buy a striker who can push Neal Maupay and Danny Welbeck. The latter is too injury prone and will miss out this week and this has proved to be a difficult ground for Brighton to secure the full points.
They certainly look plenty short in the market as one of the 'trendy' picks to finish much higher up the League standings this time around. You can't argue with the quality of chances Brighton can create, but over the second half of the season they did have some difficulties being as effective going forward away from home as they were at The Amex Stadium.
Burnley will have their tried and tested backline together for the opening fixture and I think they can do enough to earn a positive result. It should be another tight fixture with 6 of the last 8 between these clubs ending with fewer than three goals shared out, but Burnley may have enough to at least earn a point in this one.
Brighton should be stronger overall this season, but they had a poor end to the last campaign on their travels and that may show up here.
The Statistics :
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