NCAA Football
2021-09-04 - Penn State Nittany Lions at Wisconsin Badgers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : College Football Week 1
Saturday 4th September 2021 - Scheduled 12pm
5pm (British Time)
Preview
After the difficulties of 2020, the 2021 College Football season is opening up with some huge games and this is right amongst them. Both the Penn State Nittany Lions and Wisconsin Badgers are hoping to force their way into the Big Ten Championship Game and that means there will be an ambition to join the College Football PlayOffs at the end of the season and perhaps even compete for a National Championship.
Both of these teams will feel they underachieved last season- Penn State lost their opening five games in 2020 and eventually finished with a 4-5 record, while the Wisconsin Badgers were hit hard by Covid-19 issues through the season and only played seven games, concluding with a 4-3 record after winning their Bowl Game.
The Nittany Lions are bringing back sixteen starters this season and the Badgers bringing back seventeen with both teams having nine starters on the Offensive side of the ball. Penn State do have a new Offensive Co-Ordinator and that may mean there is a learning curve to go through, although having a full Spring together and with plenty of time to work with the team the feeling is that Penn State will be stronger.
James Franklin certainly believes so having guided the Nittany Lions to eleven wins in three of the previous four seasons before the floor fell out in 2020. Much is going to depend on Sean Clifford who had an inconsistent 2020 having thrown 16 Touchdown passes, but with 9 Interceptions, and who lost his starting position at Quarter Back for a game too.
Sean Clifford is hoping to have a bounce back season and he does get to throw to Jahan Dotson for another season after the Wide Receiver decided to return to Penn State rather than move into the NFL Draft. The Nittany Lions are certainly going to need Clifford to be close to his best as he faces an inexperienced Wisconsin Secondary who don't have a lot of stand out names, especially with the Badgers expecting to be strong in the trenches again and able to clamp down on the run.
The Badgers only gave up 3.3 yards per carry last season and they have plenty of returning players on the Defensive Line which should be able to restrict the Penn State rushing Offense. The Nittany Lions Offensive Line did not play up to the level we have come to expect since James Franklin took over as Head Coach in 2020, but they are hoping to bounce back and this battle in the trenches is going to be key for Sean Clifford as he looks to be given more time to make his throws to a good looking Receiving corps.
Paul Chryst will be confident of a stronger season for his Wisconsin team all around too and he will be looking to oversee a seventh straight year with a winning record. The Head Coach has Graham Mertz back at Quarter Back and there is an expectation that we will see a lot more from the highly touted prospect than we did in 2020.
He was not really helped by the Wisconsin Offensive Line who struggled to open the running lanes like we have come to expect, although that Line did give Graham Mertz the time he needed to make plays. The problem was playing from behind the chains, but the Badgers Offensive Line is a lot more experienced this time around and they should be able to bully a Penn State Defensive Line which is considered the weakest part of the Nittany Lions team on this side of the ball.
It will be all important for Wisconsin to impose themselves on this side of the ball as they look to keep the Offense in third and manageable spots and it will be a big part of the outcome of this game. While there are questions about the Penn State Defensive Line, they have not given up more than 4 yards per carry since James Franklin took over in 2014 and I think it will determine which of these good looking teams comes out with a big victory.
Graham Mertz will not really want to be throwing into the Penn State Secondary which is vastly experienced and who held teams to under 200 yards per game through the air. If the Nittany Lions can at least contain the run, they will feel they can get the better of the improved Wisconsin Receiving corps when it comes to the pass and that should give the road team every chance of keeping this one close.
Penn State are 3-1 against the spread as the road underdog since 2017, while Wisconsin are 5-11 against the spread in their last sixteen as the home favourite. The Nittany Lions have covered in the last four between these Big Ten teams and I think a team with something to prove after the difficulties of 2020 can keep this one close on the road.
I really like the look of Wisconsin this season too and this has all of the makings of a really close, competitive contest to open the College Football season before both face tough non-Conference opponents later this month. A Field Goal may separate the two teams at the end of the afternoon and so taking the points on offer with the underdog looks the way to go.
Prediction
Take the points with the road underdog.
The Pick :
Wisconsin Badgers 27-24 Penn State
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Penn State Nittany Lions + 5.5 Points at -108 with BetOnline
