Rugby League
2021-09-24 - South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Manly Sea Eagles
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : NRL
Friday 24th September 2021 - KO 1950 AEST
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Souths finished 3rd in the regular season and faced Penrith in the opening round of the finals, the winner getting a week off and the loser having to fight their way through an extra game.
Souths claimed a hard-fought win against the Panthers 2 weeks ago 10-16 and deserved their victory, the bonus for them was a 2 week break to rest and recover, something that cannot be over-looked at this time of the year.
Post origin in 2021, Souths were the best performing side losing just the once, to Penrith in round 23 by 13 points and having the best for and against in this period. You have to go back to round 11 to find Souths previous loss, again this was against Penrith.
This means from that point on, Souths have won 13 from 14 matches and are now one win away from the big dance. Souths fans are always hesitant at this point of the season though, having lost at this point numerous times over recent years.
Team changes – no changes
Manly Sea Eagles
Manly’s 2021 season has been one to watch for the ages. A terrible start, the return of their superstar fullback, the improvement of many of their young players through adversity, as a die-hard Sea Eagles fan, it has been one hell of a ride.
Manly find themselves as one of the top 4 clubs, as they did at the end of the regular season along with all remaining sides, the regular season proving how valuable it is to finish in one of these positions.
Manly go into this match after a destroying the Roosters last weekend, built off the platform their young forwards created, the backline ripped the Roosters apart again and again, it will not be anywhere near as simple this weekend.
Manly had control of the match right from the start, the Roosters gifting them field position early on, the backs scoring all of the Sea Eagles tries, Dylan Walker the only exception as his utility role means he plays in the middle but is certainly built like a back. In the end Manly winning comfortably, 42-6, 7 tries to 1.
Team Changes – no changes
Odds
Souths are slight favourites, $1.75 to $2.10, the line is a predictable 1.5 points for a semi-final and combined points 44.5
The Betting Verdict
All 4 remaining teams have a genuine shot at claiming the title in 2021 and these teams all have compelling reasons as to why. For this match, Souths are on a dream run and could well be considered the form side as we hit the semi-finals.
Cody Walker’s form has been out of this world, the Dally M has not yet been announced and Tom Trboyevic will likely win, had walker peaked a little earlier his form is so good he may well have beaten Tom. Tom is the winner for me though.
Yes, Latrell Mitchell is out, but Taaffe has been very solid at the back as his replacement and the Souths forward pack will take some serious stopping with the likes of Murray, Su’a and Koloamatangi leading the way.
Manly are playing with a freedom like never before, injuries have been kind to the Sea Eagles, they have a fully fit squad and what they lack in finals experience they make up for in youthful exuberance. DCE is controlling matches with his excellent kicking game, one that will need to be almost perfect to combat Reynolds.
His halves partner Foran is back to his best too and could well be the player that Souths forget about in the build up to this match. Rookie, Josh Schuster has had a couple of quiet matches of late and is due a big one, add in Olakau’atu, Keppie and Paseka, the Sea Eagles do have the forwards to match the big Rabbitohs pack.
Of the 13 times Manly and Souths have met in the finals, Souths hold a solid lead of 9-4, Souths winning the past 2 meetings in 2014 and 2019, 40-24 and 34-26 respectively, Manly’s last win over the Rabbits in a finals match was 2013, 30-20.
This season Manly and Souths have met once, way back in round 2. Manly were in a bad run of form and Tom Trboyevic did not play. Manly were at home, Souths led at HT thanks to 1 try to 3, 6-14. Manly managed to close the gap after HT to 12-14 but Souths pulled away in the final 15 minutes to win, 12-26.
Overall H2H, Sea Eagles hold a slender lead, 19-21, Souths have won the past 4 meetings though and Manly have not beaten the Rabbits since 2019.
With all that said, who wins?
South Sydney do have a better record in the finals against Manly, have had an extra weeks rest and have won the past 4 meetings, hence the slight favouritism from the bookies. However, Manly are more than capable of winning this one with the squad hitting good form at the right time and the fact all players are fit and available unlike Souths.
Best bets here for me are, anytime try scorers Saab for Manly and Johnston for Souths, a 1-12 option for your favoured side as history this should be close and defensively strong for both. The best option though, Manly 1-12 as I smell an upset after a strong victory against the Roosters.
Manly by 4.
The Pick :
South Sydney 18-22 Manly
