NCAA Football
2021-10-23 - Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : College Football Week 8
Saturday 23rd October 2021 - Scheduled 3:30pm
8:30pm (British Time)
Preview
The Big 12 Conference is going to look very different in the years to come and if the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns were to leave today, these two schools may end up being the ones that compete for the Championship Game on an annual basis.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-0) remain unbeaten in 2021, but it says all you need to know about their performance level when they are such a considerable underdog to the Iowa State Cyclones (4-2). A couple of disappointing setbacks have hurt the Cyclones, but they have a 2-1 record in the Conference and the Cowboys are at 3-0 and so a win for the home favourite will see them move into the inside lane when it comes to the race for the Championship Game.
It means there is a lot of pressure on both of these teams as they prepare to meet in the biggest game in the Conference this week and I think the upturn in performance level of the Cyclones on both sides of the ball means Iowa State are right to be set as the favourite in this game.
Strong Defensive performances have been the key to the successes the Cowboys have had this season, but Iowa State have looked dominant in their last two games and they will feel that, coupled with home field advantage, gives them a real edge. The Iowa State Defensive unit have just picked up their own level of play and that may see them stifle what has been a relatively low-key Oklahoma State Offense.
The key to the game will be in the trenches and the Iowa State Defensive Line have certainly found a way to clamp down on the run and make it very difficult for opponents to strike the kind of balance they would want. They should be aided by what has been an inconsistent Oklahoma State Offensive Line which has only opened holes for 3.8 yards per carry and clamping down on the run will shift the pressure onto the passing game.
Jaylen Warren may take some issue with the comment about the running ability of the Cowboys considering the improvement he has made, but it won't be easy to find a lot of running lanes against this stout Iowa State Defensive Line. It will likely be up to Spencer Sanders to have to make plays with his arm to just weaken the amount of effort the Cyclones are putting into stopping the run, but the home team have to be favouring their Secondary over the Oklahoma State Receivers too.
They are not the most effective pass rush, but the Cyclones have been confident in stopping teams having consistent success throwing the ball by keeping them in third and long. The Secondary have only allowed an average of 154 passing yards per game this season and I do think Cowboys are going to have some real difficulties moving the ball with any kind of consistency.
It will mean turning to the Defensive unit which has only allowed a little under 20 points per game this season, but that is a side of the ball that Head Coach Mike Gundy is going to believe in. The problem is they are facing Brock Purdy and the Iowa State Offensive unit which has finally found their groove having underachieved earlier in 2021.
Brock Purdy has nine Touchdown passes in his last four games and he is being well backed by Breece Hall and the powerful Iowa State Offensive Line which has been able to more than simply establish the run. The Cyclones have been wearing teams down up front and Hall has been able to punish them by bursting through the holes that have been created and it is going to be the big test for both of these teams.
All season the Cowboys Defensive Line have made it very difficult to run the ball against them, but if Breece Hall and the Cyclones can establish this aspect of their Offense, I do think the entire team is going to very tough to stop.
Brock Purdy will need the running game to just slow the Cowboys pass rush and give him time to make plays against this tough Secondary. Oklahoma State have allowed just 183 passing yards per game over their last three games, and that is a big improvement over the early season performances which will be encouraging for the road underdog.
However, Brock Purdy will be the best Quarter Back they have faced and he has gotten himself going after a slow start to the season. It is his plays, coupled with the Offensive Line's bullying performances, which suggest the Cyclones can produce a big win. I just don't think the Cowboys have the Offense to keep up with the home team here and eventually it will lead to a double digit win for Iowa State against this unbeaten opponent.
I have nothing but respect for Mike Gundy and the Oklahoma State Cowboys who tend to thrive in the underdog role, but my feeling is that the Cyclones are too good on the trenches and that can make the difference for them on the day.
Prediction
Lay the points with the home team.
The Pick :
Iowa State Cyclones 27-17 Oklahoma State Cowboys
