Rugby
2023-10-29 - New Zealand vs South Africa
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby World cup
Sunday 29th October 2023 - KO 0600 AEST
New Zealand
New Zealand finished second in their pool after losing to France in the opening match of the tournament some 5 weeks ago. After breezing through the remainder of the pool with relative ease, a crucial match worthy of a final was thrown up as a quarter final match up against Ireland.
In what could go down as the match of the tournament, NZ prevailed by 4 points while Ireland were again not able to progress beyond a quarter final in a world cup.
Last weekend the New Zealand team thoroughly destroyed a woeful Argentina who appeared to be completely overawed by the occasion.
The match was all but over at HT with New Zealand holding a decent lead 20-6 and soon thereafter exploding into action with some superb running rugby (northern hemisphere take note) resulting in a huge victory 44-6 and plenty of confidence going into the final.
South Africa
South Africa also finished second in their pool by losing to Ireland, that result allowing the South Africans to progress without the possibility facing the All Blacks unless they made the final.
South Africa also cruised past all their opposition in the remainder of the pool matches but just like the NZ team, had a difficult quarter final opponent in the home side France. France were probably the better team on the day but South Africa found a way to squeeze past the French by the smallest of margins, claiming the lead late on to win 28-29.
Not to make a habit of a 1 point margin, but South Africa managed to do just that in back to back weeks, this time against England who really fell apart in the last 10 minutes to concede 10 points in 10 minutes to lose by one, 15-16 thus progressing to the final.
Odds
NZ will start favourites $1.66 to $2.20, the line handicap is 2.5 points and combined points 41.5.
The Betting Verdict
Now we have two. New Zealand the 3 time winners have played their way through their pool to face their long-time rivals, and 3 time champions South Africa in a winner takes all clash for the world champion title. Lifting the world cup is the highest honour in rugby and you can be sure both teams will throwing everything they have at each other in what could be a feisty encounter.
South Africa won the cup in 95, 2007 and are the defending champions from 2019. Just like the All Blacks who have also won the title 3 times whoever takes out the victory here will be the first to win it 4 times and for South Africa, match the All Blacks by winning a back to back title.
NZ were written off by many after being smashed by the Proteas in the last match before the cup and were then dealt another blow in the loss to France in pool play. Since those moments a lot less pressure has been applied to an All Blacks team who have nearly always been favourites stepping into a world cup and that lack of pressure has allowed the team to concentrate on their own game. That appears to be paying dividends as the squad looks fresh and ready to go here.
Overall H2H matches NZ lead 62-39 from 105 matches and there have been 4 draws. The last match played was a South African team at its peak power, crushing the All Blacks 35-7 at Twickenham. The 2 matches prior to this were both won by NZ, 23-35 in Johannesburg, 2022 and then earlier this season in Auckland 35-20.
Both teams will throw everything at this match and fatigue will be a factor. NZ appear to be the fitter of the two teams and surprisingly have dealt with the heat rather well through the tournament.
South Africa have had a knack of winning close ones of late but I suspect the All Blacks defence will once again prove a touch too strong here and NZ should win albeit a probable low margin of 10 or less.
The best bet however looks to be the combined points, this is very low for a match between these teams who can both score tries and although finals are typically low scoring affairs, I think this target of 42+ points can be beaten and is the suggested option here.
NZ to win by 8.
The Pick :
New Zealand 27-19 South Africa
