Rugby League
2024-04-07 - Canberra Raiders vs Parramatta Eels
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : NRL
Sunday 7th April 2024 - KO 1815
GIO stadium Canberra
Canberra Raiders
Canberra are placed 8th through 4 rounds and hold a record of 2-2. They have an almost identical record to their opponents this week with only 1 point scored being the difference over Parramatta in 9th.
Canberra have beaten Newcastle and Wests in rounds 1 and 2, then losses against New Zealand and last week against the Sharks.
Canberra are hopeful of bouncing back after a disappointing round 4 loss to the Sharks, making it 2 losses in a row since winning their opening two matches.
The match looked entirely different mid-way through the first half after the Raiders started the match strong scoring 3 tries in 13 minutes to lead 0-18. The Sharks clicked into gear soon after, rattling off 3 quick tries prior to the break and another 3 after HT to bring the Raiders quickly back to earth, 36-22 the final score.
Canberra Raiders Team News – only one change, Simi Sasagi comes onto the bench to make his club debut, Hosking is out with concussion
Parramatta Eels
The Eels sit just behind the Raiders on equal competition points of 4, a record of 2-2 and in 9th position. Their victories are over the Bulldogs and Sea Eagles, with the losses to Penrith and Wests.
Parramatta came agonisingly close to claiming victory against the Visiting West Tigers after holding a 8 point lead early in the second half. Wests scored 2 quick tries later in the second half only for a penalty tied up the scores.
Aiden Sezer slotting a field goal with a minute left, the resulting kick off though gifted a penalty to the Eels but Gutherson missed the kick and as a result the Eels lose a close one, 16-17.
Parramatta Eels Team News - Bailey Simonsson comes into the starting side, Harper has been dropped, Wiremu Greig is back in the 17 from the bench.
The Betting Odds
Canberra are slight favourites, $1.78 to $2.05, the line 1.5 points and total points is set at 43.5
The Betting Verdict
The Eels have won only two of their past 12 games at GIO Stadium and overall at the venue hold a record of 5-14, while the Raiders have a great home record at 59% winning at home.
The teams have met 39 times and Canberra have the edge overall 22-17. The Eels have won 3 of the past 5, however the Raiders did win their only meeting last season 26-18 at this venue.
Canberra are a very tough team to beat at home and given the Eels poor record here the odds of $1.78 represents good value to just simply win at home. Parramatta are a competitive team though and will push hard even if behind to try and win and remain in the top 8.
For the fact Canberra are at home, I expect them to win but not by much making the 1-12 option a solid choice here.
The Pick :
Canberra Raiders 22-16 Parramatta Eels
