Champions League

2024-04-09 - Real Madrid vs Manchester City

A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa

Real Madrid v Manchester City
UEFA Champions League - 1/4 Finals, 1st leg
Santiago Bernabeu Stadium, Madrid, Spain
Referee: Francois Letexier (FRA)
Tuesday, 9th April, 21:00 CET

Real Madrid

This is the fourth time in five seasons that Real Madrid and Manchester City meet in the Champions League knockout stages. The English side progressed three times, or we could say that the side that played the second leg at home progressed every single time, and City was that team on three occasions.

In a sense, Manchester City became Real's nemesis and practically the only thing that stands between them and the European trophy. Real is dominant in La Liga once again and is looking to somehow knock City out of the competition now when they have Jude Bellingham - he didn't play in either of the two knockout matches last year.

Jude's otherworldly ability is possibly the only thing that can place Real in the semifinals, and we could also say that Real might just be the only team in Europe that can stop City.

Real is actually the third favourite to win the competition, priced at 7.00 at Bet365, behind Arsenal at 6.00 and Man City at 2.87.

Manchester City

It isn't all smooth sailing for Manchester City this season as, despite having possibly the best forward in the world, Haaland, the team seems to have taken a step back from previous years. Manchester City is actually performing to almost the same level in terms of points as last year - they should have 72 now if last year's average of 2.34 was applied and they have 70 - but the goals scored per game went down from 2.47 to 2.29. In other words, City scored roughly five goals less than this time last year, and has two points less. Since the competition this year is brutal, City is on the third spot.

People forget that for many years, Manchester City was being seen as the best team never to have won the Champions League, until they finally won it last year. Well, this year they have to confirm that they have indeed learned to go all the way.

So, while Manchester City remains the top favourite to win both the Premier League and the Champions League, let's not forget that they have been knocked out of the competition as heavy favourites before. If anyone can ruin their plans this year, it's Real.

Team News

Manchester City is having problems in defence as Gvardiol is injured and Walker and Ake are also likely out. That means Akanji might be asked to step up. Ederson returned to full fitness and it remains to be seen if Guardiola will automatically field him.

Real Madrid has no fresh injury concerns, only the well-known ones such as Courtois and Alaba. Militao is close to full fitness and he might even see some playing time here.

Probable Lineups

Real Madrid (4-3-1-2): Lunin - Carvajal, Rudiger, Nacho, Mendy - Valverde, Tchouameni, Kroos - Bellingham - Vinicius Jr, Rodrygo.

Manchester City (4-2-3-1): Ederson - Lewis, Stones, Dias, Akanji - Rodri, Kovacic - Silva, De Bruyne, Foden - Haaland.

The Betting Verdict

If you remember last year's match in Madrid, that ended 1-1, Real needed to pull of a miraculous and perfect combination to manage to score against this same City side. That's what it takes. This year it will be easier as Bellingham will be in the lineup, but we still expect Manchester City to rule the proceedings here.

Real will again resort to playing on the back foot and waiting for that counter attack that gave them their only goal in the two legs against City.

We say they'll get one here too. Even if the price on Both Teams To Score: YES is a bit short at 1.61, we believe Jude Bellingham will make things happen against a depleted Man City back line. On the other end, Man City will almost certainly find the net as the side that will be playing on the front foot throughout the game.

The Statistics :

REAL_MADRID LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2024-03-06	D	1-1	H v RB_Leipzig
	2023-11-29	W	4-2	H v Napoli
	2023-11-08	W	3-0	H v Braga
	2023-09-20	W	1-0	H v Union_Berlin
	2023-05-09	D	1-1	H v Man_City
	2023-04-12	W	2-0	H v Chelsea

MAN_CITY LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2024-02-13	W	1-3	A v Copenhagen
	2023-12-13	W	2-3	A v Red_Star_Belgrade
	2023-10-25	W	1-3	A v Young_Boys
	2023-10-04	W	1-3	A v RB_Leipzig
	2023-05-09	D	1-1	A v Real_Madrid
	2023-04-19	D	1-1	A v Bayern_Munchen

HEAD TO HEAD REAL_MADRID v MAN_CITY
DATE	HOME	SCORE	AWAY
2023-05-09	Real_Madrid	1-1	Man_City
2022-05-04	Real_Madrid	3-1	Man_City
2020-02-26	Real_Madrid	1-2	Man_City
2016-05-04	Real_Madrid	1-0	Man_City
2012-09-18	Real_Madrid	3-2	Man_City