Italian Serie A
2024-05-05 - Cagliari vs Lecce
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 35
Unipol Domus, Cagliari, Sardinia, Italy (16,416)
Sunday, 5th May 2024, 12:30 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
Match Preview
Cagliari and Lecce face off in a relegation six-pointer though both sides are safe at the moment, especially Lecce with a seven-point gap to the relegation zone.
Cagliari is only three points above the line, and for them this is one of the last opportunities to get some points as the remaining three rounds bring them Milan away, Sassuolo away and Fiorentina at home.
Cagliari Team News
Cagliari lost 3-0 to Genoa in the last round and that was an end of a pretty long undefeated stretch for a relegation candidate that spanned four rounds. All in all, Cagliari is doing really well since the start of March and got three wins and three draws, plus two defeats on the road. More than a third of all Cagliari's points were won during these last eight rounds.
We can't know if Cagliari will actually go on to win here as Lecce is a hard nut to crack, but what we know is that Cagliari always scores at home. It's a really rare thing for them to not score in front of their own fans, they find a way to put the ball into the back of the net.
Also, while Cagliari lost a few matches against fellow relegation candidates, all of these were away matches, and at home they never lost to a fellow struggler this season.
Lecce Team News
A change of coach was long overdue and when it finally happened, Lecce started performing again. Since Luca Gotti took over, Lecce got three wins in Serie A, plus two draws and only one defeat, away to AC Milan. This is what brought Lecce out of the danger zone.
Lecce is playing 4-4-2 now after being stuck in the same formation with the same eleven for most of the season, and the change immediately brought good results.
Probable Lineups
Cagliari (4-2-3-1): Scuffet - Zappa, Mina, Dossena, Augello - Makoumbou, Sulemana - Nandez, Gaetano, Luvumbo - Shomorudov. Coach Ranieri.
Lecce (4-4-2): Falcone - Gendrey, Pongracic, Baschirotto, Gallo - Oudin, Blin, Rafia, Dorgu - Piccoli, Krstovic. Coach Gotti.
The only notable absentee in either side is Jankto from Cagliari. Ranieri might rotate his team a bit, but Gotti is expected to field the same lineup that is proven to work.
The Betting Market
Cagliari is a slight favourite in this relegation duel with a price of 2.21, and the Under 2.5 Goals is somewhat surprisingly the favoured option with a price of only 1.66. Likewise, the bookmakers say it's likely that at least one team won't find the net, as BTTS:No is priced at 1.80 while the Yes option carries a price of 1.95.
The Betting Verdict
We disagree with the bookmakers' prognosis of a cagey affair - there will be fireworks here.
Let's count how many times has Cagliari been involved in very high-scoring games, with at least four goals. It happened whopping 11 times this season - this is hardly an underish football team. When it rains, it pours. We must also note that these high-scoring games were especially likely when Cagliari is up against a team of similar quality.
Lecce is the reason why the bookmakers expect this game to finish 1-1 or so, because that's how this tough team has looked like for the entire season. And they won't change their ways. But they might just be drawn into an open exchange of blows.
The bookmakers' fixation on an underish game allows us to bet on Over 2 Goals, which means we get our stake back if there are exactly two.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Cagliari 2-1 Lecce
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Over 2.0 Goals at 1.65 at Bet365
