Rugby League
2024-05-10 - Parramatta Eels vs Brisbane Broncos
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : NRL Season 2024
Friday 10th May 2024 – KO20800 AEST
Parramatta Eels
The Eels are barely hanging on this season winning just 3 of 8 matches, last weekends bye pushing their points tally up to 8 to sit 12th on the ladder on equal points with the Cowboys, Knights and Dragons.
Parramatta have won just once in the past 4 matches, a gritty 7 point victory over the Cowboys at home, however, the 3 losses have been heavy defeats, 33 point loss to Raiders, 28 point loss to the Dolphins and a 14 point loss in their last match away to Manly.
All of these last 4 matches have exceeded the 45 point threshold set for this match. A huge amount of improvement is required for Parramatta to have any chance of making the top 8.
Parramatta Eels Team news – Clint Gutherson is out injured, Blaize Talagi will play fullback in the absence of skipper while Sean Russell starts in the centres and Bryce Cartwright returns from a rib injury on the bench
Brisbane Broncos
Brisbane hold a 5-4 record placing them on 10 points which is good enough to have them in the top 8 on points differential in 7th at the start of round 10.
Before last weekend’s destruction at the hands of the Roosters, Brisbane was on a 3 game winning streak after easily taking care of the Dolphins, Raiders and Tigers.
But that all came crashing down on a very wet evening at Suncorp stadium eventually losing badly 18-40 and losing their star playmaker Adam Reynolds for an extended period of time. Brisbane will now rely heavily on Ezra Mam as their playmaker, a very tough ask on the young man.
Brisbane Broncos Team news – Josh Rogers will start in place of Adam Reynolds playing just his second NRL Game,. Corey Oates comes on to the wing and Jack Gosiewski plays his first match as a Bronco.
Odds
The Visiting Broncos start as favourites, $3.25 to $1.35, the line is 8.5 points and combined points 44.5
The Betting Verdict
Brisbane were in fine scoring form prior to last weeks loss and will be aiming to get back into their winning ways if they are to remain in contact with leading pack. The loss of Reynolds is a major blow to Brisbane’s chances particularly around their goal and tactical in play kicking. However, the Broncos are stacked with talent like Walsh and Haas so should have enough fire power here.
The Eels have lost their last nine games without fullback Clint Gutherson so his absence could be telling for the Eels, add to that Jesse Arthars on the wing and Mitch Moses still out the Eels are relying on some youth to get the job done in crucial positions.
Defensively Parramatta have been poor, I note the Eels have conceded 76 points in their past two games and are 13th ranked on defence and not much better on attack, ranked 11th ranked 11th in this category.
These teams have met 50 times and the overall record is very close, 26-24 Eels just ahead. The most recent matches show the Broncos have won three of their past four games against the Eels, but have only won once from 4 attempts at this stadium.
With the favouritism leaning well towards the Broncos here and the stats stacked against the Eels even the Absence of Adam Reynolds doesn’t appear enough to suggest an Eels victory.
History also suggests a high scoring evening too, with each of the past 6 matches hitting 40+ and most 50+. That said, with some experienced players out in key positions you are more likely to see a lower scoring match.
Brisbane should win this one by 10+ points, opening up options of Tribet 6 points returning $1.70 or line option of -8.5 points.
The Pick :
Parramatta Eels 14-26 Brisbane Broncos
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take a bet on the Tribet 6.5 point market : Brisbane to win by 7 or more points at odds of $1.70 with Bet365
