Italian Serie A
2024-05-11 - Napoli vs Bologna
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 36
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples, Campania, Italy (54,726)
Saturday, 11th May 2024, 18:00 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
Match Preview
Napoli, the scudetto winner from a year ago, enters this match as a favourite despite having 13 points less than Bologna and barely holding the 8th spot on the table while Bologna is 4th. Is it time to stop calling Napoli a favourite?
Napoli Team News
It's not like Napoli didn't have their moments this season. They came just often enough for us to think, hey, there's life left in this squad and they might do something. You start thinking that when they beat Juventus 2-1 at home, for example. But in nine matches since, Napoli has exactly one win, 2-4 against uninterested Monza.
It's just a long line of matches in which Napoli held a lead and then couldn't hold it. Or, worse, never had the lead in the first place. But taking the lead and holding it? That's rare.
Bologna Team News
Bologna is doing well, everyone can see that by looking at the table. They're doing well because of coach Thiago Motta and his innovative tactics that do things a bit differently and make sure that there's always a free player in offense, while the whole team defends with intensity when off the ball. That alone is enough to get you on a winning run.
Compare this to Napoli, a side that has to produce miraculous one-man performances to find the net. Bologna simply plays their game and the chance opens up. This is why they score.
Probable Lineups
Napoli (4-3-3): Meret - Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Juan Jesus, Olivera - Anguissa, Lobotka, Cajuste - Politano, Osimhen, Kvaratskhelia. Coach Calzona.
Bologna (4-2-3-1): Skorupski - Posch, Lucumi, Calafiori, Kristiansen - Freuler, Aebischer - Orsolini, El Azzouzi, Saelemaekers - Zirkzee. Coach Motta.
Napoli will field the same formation and lineup that doesn't work, while Bologna will field the one that works. Zielinski and Raspadori are out for Napoli, which means that there will be fewer options on the bench when things go wrong.
The Betting Market
For some reason unknown to us, Napoli is the favourite here despite being the 13th-best (meaning, 8th-worst) home side in the league, with a negative goal difference. Napoli has found it difficult to perform in front of their home fans where the pressure is immense even when the opponent was much weaker.
Bologna is the 7th-best visitor and only lost three games this season out of seventeen. Fiorentina, Udinese and Cagliari got the best of Bologna, so it seems it's a matter of having a bad day, otherwise you'd see defeats to the likes of Inter, Milan, Juventus, Roma, Lazio, Atalanta. But Bologna didn't lose any of these.
There are many good bets here. Bologna to score at 1.40 would be a very safe bet, Bologna (AH+0.50) at 1.725 has very good value, while Bologna(AH+0) at 2.425 is your way to get maximum value out of this game.
The Betting Verdict
Whatever bet you pick on Bologna it will be a good one. We'll go for Bologna (AH+0.50), which is essentially a double chance bet but with slightly better odds, as we don't think Napoli will win here. We think a duel between a side with deep tactical troubles and a side whose tactics give them winning streaks has to end with a win, or at least a draw, for the latter.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Napoli 0-2 Bologna
