Italian Serie A
2024-11-23 - AC Milan vs Juventus
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 13
San Siro Stadium, Milano, Lombardy, Italy (80,018)
Saturday, 23 November, 18:00 CET
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AC Milan Team News
Milan is unreliable, to say the least. They can win 1-3 against Real Madrid on Santiago Bernabeu, then go to Cagliari and not be able to hold the lead - twice. They were up 1-2 and 2-3 but the final score was 3-3.
Milan is the first side outside of top six, by a significant margin. The top six teams all have between 26 and 24 points - Juventus is the 6th one with 24 - and Milan has 18 with one less match played. So, in the best-case scenario, Milan is effectively at 21.
In other words, they must win here to catch up. If they lose, they'll face an uphill struggle to make it back to the top six.
Juventus Team News
Juventus got two consecutive 2-0 wins, against Udinese and Torino, so now the air is a bit clearer but this is still only good enough for the 6th place in Serie A - not exactly what Juventus had hoped for after going the distance with Inter last season, and getting a shiny new coach to win the scudetto for them. This is most certainly a regression.
Juventus is still undefeated, with 6 draws from 12 matches, because they simply don't concede goals. They only conceded 7 goals so far, which is by far the best mark in the league. Napoli conceded 9, and Fiorentina and Empoli are at 10. Milan is at 14.
Probable Lineups
Milan (4-2-3-1): Maignan - Emerson Royal, Thiaw, Tomori, Hernandez - Fofana, Reijnders - Chukwueze, Pulisic, Leao - Morata. Coach Fonseca.
Juventus (4-2-3-1): Di Gregorio - Savona, Gatti, Kalulu, Cambiaso - Locatelli, Thuram - Conceicao, Koopmeiners, Yildiz - Weah. Coach Motta.
Vlahovic is doubtful for Juventus and, despite all the criticism, if he's not on the pitch then Juventus' attack won't work.
The Betting Market
Milan is a 2.21 favourite in this derby, mostly because it's at home and because it's seen as the slightly better team. Home advantage means little in derby dei Campioni, though, results are all over the place. Last six official meetings were all low-scoring, and the three before that went Over 2.5 Goals.
Under is priced at 1.66, with a 2.20 for the Over. On the other hand, Both Teams To Score: YES is priced at 1.95, with a 1.80 for NO.
The Betting Verdict
It's safe to say we can expect a tight game here. But we expected one when Inter and Juventus met and that ended 4-4. However, one thing that stands out in Milan and Juventus meetings is that there's never more than 1 goal in the first half, even in that one game that ended 4-2. It just does not happen.
So we'll take a punt on that. The Asian goal line for the first half is set at 1.0, so we get our stake back if there's exactly one goal, we win if there's none, and we lose if there are two or more.
We expect Juventus to do their short passing game in an attempt to lock up this game and make it a one-goal game, but in the end this will favour Milan as they have the firepower to score that one goal.
Not in the first half, hopefully.
The Pick :
Milan 1-0 Juventus
