Italian Serie A
2024-12-29 - AC Milan vs AS Roma
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 18
San Siro Stadium, Milano, Lombardy, Italy (80,018)
Sunday, 29 December, 20:45 CET
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Milan Team News
Milan got an important routine win at Verona with 0-1, and this came after a 0-0 against Genoa in the round before. There have been quite a few poor results when Milan was playing relegation candidates this season, so this win was a breath of fresh air. Milan is still only 8th though, without a chance to enter the Champions League conversation unless they enter a serious winning streak.
Roma Team News
Roma is a powerhouse when at home and when favoured, we know that for a while now, and it became even more true now under Claudio Ranieri. This is how many goals teams received when they visited Stadio Olimpico recently: Lecce 4, Braga 3, Sampdoria 4, Roma 5.
Away from home it's a different story, as indicated by a 2-0 defeat to Como. The sample size is very small here since Ranieri came, but the trend of not winning on the road continues. Miraculously, Roma hasn't won a single away game this season in all competitions, in 11 attempts.
Probable Lineups
Milan (4-2-3-1): Maignan - Emerson Royal, Thiaw, Gabbia, Hernandez - Fofana, Terracciano - Chukwueze, Reijnders, Jimenez - Morata. Coach Fonseca.
Roma (3-4-2-1): Svilar - Mancini, Hummels, Ndicka - Saelemaekers, Kone, Paredes, Angelino - El Sharaawy, Dybala - Dovbyk. Coach Ranieri.
Loftus-Cheek, Leao and Pulisic are all injured for Milan.
The Betting Market
Milan is a slight favourite at 2.25, but as you can see in the probable lineups section above, they're missing their entire offensive midfield trio that's been carrying this team for two seasons now.
The bookmakers are cautiously making this a high-scoring game, as Both Teams To Score: YES is priced at 1.70 while the Over 2.5 Goals is evenly split at 1.90.
The Betting Verdict
Roma is better now but they still can't play on the road, they still can't play good defence, and they still can't perform in derbies. Milan, on the other hand, is a shaky favourite that checks most of these boxes as well.
This would seem to indicate we'll be looking at a topsy-turvy encounter in which both teams will find the net and the totals will go over.
The Pick :
Milan 2-2 Roma
