NFL Football

2025-01-18 - Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions
United States : NFL Playoff Divisional Round
Saturday 18th January 2025 - Scheduled 8pm
1am (British Time)

Preview

In Week 18 the Detroit Lions (15-2) were able to get the better of Divisional rivals Minnesota for a second time in the regular season and that secured the NFC North and the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

A Bye through to the Divisional Round has given the Lions an opportunity to rest and allow other players to recover from injuries so they can take part in what Detroit are hoping is a maiden run to the Super Bowl.

Home advantage is secured through to the Super Bowl, but there is some pressure on the Detroit Lions who have made it very clear that winning the Championship is their only ambition for the season.

Next up is the Washington Commanders (13-5) who upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road last week, although the mistakes made by the Buccaneers at the end of that Wild Card game will haunt them through the off-season.

Jayden Daniels made some big plays late on, as he has throughout his rookie season, but it has been tough for rookie Quarter Backs to string wins together in the Playoff. The Commanders feel they have a special player behind Center, but this is another big test for Jayden Daniels and against the team many feel has been the best in the Conference all season.

Even as injuries have piled up, credit has to be given to the Lions for finding a way to clamp down on Offenses they have been facing.

The bend, don't break concept has worked for the Lions, but the first port of call for Detroit will be for the Defensive Line to play the run a little better than they have in recent games. Trying to keep the Commanders in third and long will give the Lions an opportunity to try and rattle Jayden Daniels, although the young Quarter Back has shown a willingness to stand in the pocket and make his plays down the field even under pressure.

The Lions Secondary did give Sam Darnold problems in Week 18, but this is arguably a tougher test and they have given up enough yards through the air to offer Jayden Daniels and company plenty of encouragement.

Washington's own Defensive Line have played well in recent games and that is going to be key for them in this big road game in the Divisional Round. However, they have rarely been up against a powerful Offensive Line like the one that Detroit will be bringing onto the field.

David Montgomery is back and the 'Sonic and Knuckles' combination when coupled with Jahmyr Gibbs will make it very difficult for the Commanders to keep tabs on the Lions.

That same Offensive Line has offered plenty of pass protection for Jared Goff too and giving the Quarter Back a bit of time in the pocket could see the Lions make some big plays down the field. The ability to run the ball opens up play-action, quick strike Football and the Lions are going to be very confident behind Jared Goff.

The Quarter Back has a 34-13-1 record against the spread when playing indoors for the Detroit Lions, while the game plan for this one should be well executed for a Head Coach who has an 11-2 record against the spread when having preparation time.

Historically the Lions have not been a team you want to back to cover big spreads, especially when facing teams with a winning record. However they covered in the post-season last year against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a biggish favourite and Detroit might just show their talent edge in this one against the overachieving Washington Commanders.

This is a big line though and Jayden Daniels can do enough to secure a backdoor cover with his own ability at Quarter Back.

Road underdogs of between 3.5 and 9.5 points have a 26-17-1 record against the spread in this Divisional Round of the Playoffs and the Commanders can do enough to avoid the blowout.

Teams that missed the Playoff the previous year have a 28-14 record against the spread in the Divisional Round and Washington may make use of this big number, even if it means opposing strong records that Jared Goff and Dan Campbell have put together.