UEFA Nations
2025-03-23 - Germany vs Italy
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: UEFA Nations League Quarter Final Second Leg
Sunday 23rd March 2025 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Germany
At half time they might have felt there was still an opportunity to earn a positive result for the Second Leg, but Germany have to be given all credit for fighting back and beating Italy 1-2. This is a result that makes them strong favourites to reach the Nations League Finals for the first time and Germany can keep the positives going after performing better than expected at Euro 2024.
They followed that up by topping their Nations League Group ahead of Netherlands and Hungary and they were particularly dominant at home. Three clean sheets deserve respect, but Germany scored thirteen goals in those wins over Hungary, Netherlands, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and the defeat suffered at Euro 2024 came deep into Extra Time against Spain having won 3 of 4 games prior to that.
Germany have not lost any of their last 16 games in all competitions in normal time and that is the kind of momentum they will want to take into the World Cup Qualifiers and then into North America next summer. The team have won 7 of their last 9 games at home in normal time with the exceptions being a draw with Switzerland and then the Extra Time defeat to eventual European Champions Spain.
Italy
If the defeat in this Nations League Quarter Final is confirmed on Sunday, Italy will know that their World Cup Qualifying Group will contain Norway and they will begin preparing for the opening Qualifier in Oslo. After failing to reach the World Cup Finals in 2018 and 2022, the pressure will be on Italy from the off in June with fans likely to be disappointed with another showing in a 'major' tournament.
They played well against Germany, but the First Leg looked to be petering out before Italy conceded late and put themselves behind the black ball ahead of the Second Leg. All is not lost though and Italy did win all 3 away Nations League games played in the Group at France, Israel and Belgium.
Italy were pretty disappointing at Euro 2024 where they had been defending Champions and the defeat to Germany means they have lost consecutive home Nations League games. The side failed to win any of their last 3 away Euro 2024 Qualifiers, but the form in the Nations League Group Stage has to give the players something to believe in.
Head to Head
Germany have won 4 of their last 6 games played against Italy and that includes thumping them 5-2 in June 2022 in the Nations League.
It is consecutive home wins for Germany over Italy that the nation with the lead from the Quarter Final First Leg takes into this fixture.
Prediction
With the away goals rule removed, this Quarter Final is far from over even if Germany have a lead to take back home against Italy.
However, the home form is key for Germany and they are a team that have scored plenty of goals in front of their own fans.
Italy's away form in the Nations League Group deserves respect, especially the win in France, but this feels like a tough test for them.
If Germany were to score first, it will feel like a very long way back for Italy and the home team can secure another victory with the away team likely to take risks that can be punished.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Germany 2-1 Italy
