Italian Serie A
2025-05-09 - AC Milan vs Bologna
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 36
San Siro Stadium, Milano, Lombardy, Italy (80,018)
Friday, 09 May 2025, 20:45 CET
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Milan Team News
Believe it or not but Milan is just barely in the top half of the table, two spots behind Bologna, and with zero chance to play in Europe next year through Serie A qualification. This is a disaster for Milan and this expensive squad, but they can reach Europe by beating Bologna in the Coppa Italia final that is scheduled only five days after this tie.
While we may think both sides will be hiding their real strength here, and that therefore the game will be slow and uneventful, there is no doubt that Milan will want to impose themselves onto Bologna and make the other side think about the cup game. Milan wants to win this. And then win again in the cup.
Bologna Team News
Bologna took a point against Juventus in a tightly contested affair with one penalty shout on each side, and not much else. Bologna had a bit more going on than Juventus, but the 1-1 draw was the fair final result.
This continues a very long streak of good results that are only briefly interrupted by a defeat here and there. The last one came four rounds ago in Bergamo against Atalanta as the home side won 2-0.
Bologna is creating a lot of decent chances - this is a very good football team - but they are lacking the finisher who will clinically be converting those chances into goals. They still score, just not as much as they would if they had a proper striker.
Probable Lineups
Milan (3-4-3): Maignan - Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic - Jimenez, Loftus-Cheek, Reijnders, Hernandez - Pulisic, Gimenez, Joao Felix. Coach Conceicao.
Bologna (4-2-3-1): Skorupski - De Silvestri, Beukema, Casale, Lykogiannis - Aebischer, Freuler - Orsolini, Fabbian, Dominguez - Dallinga. Coach Italiano.
The Betting Market
Milan is a slight favourite at 2.35 and that right there is a decent value bet. The fact that Bologna is very difficult to beat might put you off though, as this side played 23 times this year, including the Champions League, and lost exactly twice.
Over 2.5 Goals and Under 2.5 Goals are both priced at 1.90, while the Both Teams To Score market is leaning towards a Yes, with a price of 1.75, with 2.00 for a No.
The Betting Verdict
We don't need to look too far back to find how this match will look like. The 2-1 Bologna win against Milan two months ago had plenty of opportunities on both ends, so we suspect that this one will, too.
Bologna, an underish team, usually gets tied up in low-scoring affairs when they meet a top side. This was the case in their last four derbies: against Napoli, Atalanta, Inter and Juventus. Against Milan though, it seems the meetings lean towards three goals or more.
This will be our bet here, though we were hoping for better odds. The bookmakers are obviously aware that this game will be different than what we usually see from Bologna. We think that either Milan or Bologna will win this 2-1.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Milan 2-1 Bologna
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take Over 2.5 Goals at 1.90 at Bet365
