Italian Serie A
2025-08-29 - Lecce vs AC Milan
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 2
Stadio Via del mare, Lecce, Apulia, Italy (40,670)
Friday, 29 August 2025, 20:45 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
Lecce Team News
Lecce and Genoa played a completely uneventful match. We hoped for something from Genoa at least, but in the end nothing happened at all. Lecce hasn't even registered a single shot on target. They had 7 shots and posted an xG of 0.37, so it doesn't look all that bad for a visiting game, but, frankly, it was bad.
Actually, Lecce won't mind too much as they won a point, and everything else is less important in their season-long race to stay in the league. They will adopt the same approach here and will want to keep it 0-0.
Forget about any ideas of winning 1-0, that's not what this team is about, after selling Nikola Krstovic they are completely toothless in offense. They will just sit back and defend here, and never lose their positioning.
AC Milan Team News
The core of this team's problems is the lack of a good centre forward, as Santiago Gimenez is not the answer and never will be. If he can't make an impact at home against lowly Cremonese, then this league is not for him.
Milan actually looked quite good, even though it was pedestrian pace throughout, in that shocking defeat to Cremonese. They combined well in the final third and entered a lot of promising chances, but Fofana and Loftus-Cheek lack the composure and courage to actually score a goal. Saelemakers was making things happen, and of course Modric was the maestro. Could have had a goal and an assist.
Modric's influence in this Milan side will show not only on the pitch but on his captaincy abilities - though he's not the official captain - and as he spends more time with the squad and his influence begins to show, he'll set this team up properly. The only way is up. Expect him to talk to Fofana, Loftus-Cheek, and the others, and tell them what to do and when. That's what the man does.
Expect an improved Milan here. Unfortunately, still with Gimenez up front, as Milan hasn't signed a new striker yet. Boniface's transfer was cancelled and now Vlahovic looks likely. Max Allegri wants him, and Vlahovic is willing to cut his wages in half just to join. So it's looking likely and, if the deal goes through, it would be a jackpot for Milan.
Probable Lineups
Lecce (4-3-3): Falcone - Veiga, Gaspar, Tiago Gabriel, Gallo - Coulibaly, Ramadani, Berisha - Pierotti, Camarda, Morente. Coach Di Francesco.
Milan (4-3-3): Maignan - De Winter, Gabbia, Pavlovic, Jimenez - Loftus-Cheek, Modric, Fofana - Saelemaekers, Gimenez, Pulisic. Coach Allegri.
Rafael Leao still isn't back for Milan, he will be ready next week.
The Betting Market
The price on Milan is understandably low at 1.66 and it will likely drop further by match day, removing all value from it. Last season, the price was 1.80 and Milan won 2-3. Still, even this is a good bet, especially at Bet365 as they have an enhanced price of 1.70. Also consider Milan to Win To Nil at 2.62.
The game looks headed for an Under, with a price of 1.72, and this is indeed the most likely outcome. Lecce can't score. But if they do, Milan will score two, so beware. Both Teams To Score: NO is also a tempting option at 1.75.
The Betting Verdict
Under 2.5 Goals and BTTS-No are both very solid bets, based on how Lecce looks like in the final third - in those rare instances that they get there in the first place.
However, due to Strahinja Pavlovic being a menace in both penalty boxes, we can't possibly bet on Milan to not concede when he's on the pitch.
So we'll just go for the most obvious outcome, which is Milan to win.
They simply have to.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Lecce 0-2 Milan
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take Milan to Win at 1.70 at Bet365
