Italian Serie A
2025-08-30 - Napoli vs Cagliari
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 2
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples, Campania, Italy (54,726)
Saturday, 30 August 2025, 20:45 CET
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Napoli Team News
Fun fact - this is the fixture in which Napoli won the scudetto last year with a 2-0 win in Round 38. Napoli just had to win here as they entered the last day with a 1-point advantage over Inter. Inter won 0-2 in Como, Napoli won 2-0 against Cagliari in a dominant fashion, only giving away 0.08 xG to the visitors.
Judging by the confident team defensive performance in the opening round against Sassuolo, not conceding will be a trademark of this season's Napoli, and Cagliari won't even get a sniff of the goal.
The absence of Romelu Lukaku wasn't yet felt, but despite all the positives that are evident, Napoli is racing to sign a forward. Rasmus Hojlund is likely to come on loan with a €45m buy clause, to come back to the league where his talents shined with 9 goals in 32 appearances for Atalanta. It's a transfer that would make a lot of sense.
Cagliari Team News
We were a few minutes away from winning the bet on Fiorentina to win the game, but Cagliari scored for 1-1 in the 94th minute to take a point. Thanks a lot. In all fairness, Cagliari was actually the more active team, but only after conceding the goal around the 70th minute. Until then it was a bore fest on both ends.
Credit goes to Cagliari for once again showing they know how to chase the score - this is the number one thing to know about this team - and we were perhaps foolish to not recognize how fiery this side can be. This is true for both home and away matches. However, against Conte's Napoli few will be given an opportunity to play offensive football. Napoli is likely the best in Serie A in protecting the lead.
Probable Lineups
Napoli (4-1-4-1): Meret - Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Juan Jesus, Olivera - Lobotka - Politano, Anguissa, De Bruyne, McTominay - Lucca. Coach Conte.
Cagliari (4-3-2-1): Caprile - Zappa, Mina, Luperto, Obert - Deiola, Prati, Adopo - Folorunsho, Esposito - Borelli. Coach Pisacane.
The Betting Market
Napoli's win is priced at 1.32, which is much more than the 1.16 we had in Round 38. So you can actually consider it a value bet.
The bookmakers are already aware this is one tough defence because the entire team chokes your offensive actions, so BTTS-No is priced at 1.57. The near equivalent of that is Napoli to Win To Nil at 1.90.
Over 2.5 Goals is the favoured option at 1.80 and here you're basically betting on 3-0 as the 2-1 is not very likely.
The handicap on Napoli -1.5, is priced at 1.975 so this is a good option too.
The Betting Verdict
Napoli is going for another scudetto, everyone is fully aware that it is won or lost in small games such as this one, and that the way to win such a game is through team defence. Teams that forget about defending when playing against minnows - here's looking at you, AC Milan - don't win titles.
Expect a dominant performance for Napoli, a handicap win, and a win to nil. Cagliari won't be given much, maybe a few long shots.
It's really a toss-up between Win To Nil and AH-1.50 but we'll opt for the clean sheet.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Napoli 2-0 Cagliari
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take Napoli to Win To Nil at 1.90 at Bet365
