ITALIAN SERIE A BETTING PICK - CAGLIARI V PARMA

Italian Serie A

2025-09-13 - Cagliari vs Parma

A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa

Cagliari v Parma
Italy Serie A - Round 3
Unipol Domus, Cagliari, Sardinia, Italy (16,416)
Saturday, 13 September 2025, 15:00 CET
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Cagliari Team News

Cagliari played two respectable matches so far, the home 1-1 against Fiorentina with a late equalizer, and a visiting defeat to Napoli 1-0. The fact that Cagliari hasn't conceded more than once in these two matches is saying a lot about this team. This is no longer one of the most serious relegation candidates, but potentially a somewhat stable mid-table Serie A team.

However, to stay up they have to beat the other relegation candidates at home, which is the case here. They won against Parma twice last season so they certainly expect another win here as Parma is significantly weakened now.

One notable aspect of Cagliari is that they're a side that will likely equalize when a goal down, even win. They start their matches in a cautious fashion, but when they concede - especially if they're at home - they let loose and they soon overwhelm the opponent. This is how Cagliari gets most of their points in this league - by chasing the score and succeeding in it.

Parma Team News

Parma scored once so far, but it was enough to take away our win on Atalanta with a late equalizer. In the first round, Parma expectedly lost to Juventus 2-0, so this match against Cagliari is their first real opportunity to get some points.

Parma is no longer an offensive side, those days are long gone, and now they are more similar to Genoa or Torino. They attempt to control the midfield in order to control the damage, and they have a superb goalkeeper Suzuki who's there to save the day if the defence is breached.

There's not much fire in this team offensively, but it also depends on the opponent, of course. If the opponent allows enough space then Parma will happily do their offensive combinations and work their way to a goal.

However, even in the period when they enjoyed their best form since joining Serie A, Parma had a serious problem with visiting games. These problems are never solved easily, and we'd say coach Pecchia can so far only make Parma a hard nut to crack, no more.

Probable Lineups

Cagliari (4-3-2-1): Caprile - Zappa, Mina, Luperto, Obert - Deiola, Prati, Adopo - Folorunsho, Esposito - Borelli. Coach Pisacane.

Parma (3-5-2): Suzuki - Circati, Troilo, Valenti - Delprato, Bernabe, Keita, Sorensen, Valeri - Oristanio, Pellegrino. Coach Pecchia.

The Betting Market

Cagliari is a favourite at 2.21 but it's a bit of a stretch to make that kind of bet. This is likely to be a low-scoring game, as indicated by the price on Under 2.5 Goals of only 1.66, so you'd probably be betting on Cagliari to win to nil. Or Cagliari to chase the score and succeed.

Will both teams score? No one knows, not even the bookmakers, as Yes is priced at 1.95 and no at 1.80. All these prices seem to indicate a tendency towards a 1-0 score, or 1-1 at best.

The Betting Verdict

However, these teams meet regularly and more often than not, there are fireworks. Cagliari first won 2-3 in Parma last year, and then won 2-1 at home. Parma may be a lot less offensive now as the players are different, but we still see this as an opportunity for a good Over, if you want to give that a go.

Sure, both Cagliari and Parma have nothing but unders this season, but they played Juventus, Atalanta, Napoli and Fiorentina, and obviously chose to play conservatively. The exact opposite might be the case now when these two sides play each other.

An overish game is likely but what's even more likely is Cagliari to take the points regardless of how this game will look like. If it's a cagey affair then Cagliari will naturally be closer to the 1-0 win. If it's a shootout then Cagliari has more weapons. Let's trust the hosts here.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :

Take Cagliari to Win at 2.21 at Bet365

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