Italian Serie A
2025-09-13 - Fiorentina vs Napoli
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 3
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florenze, Tuscany, Italy (43,147)
Saturday, 13 September 2025, 20:45 CET
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Fiorentina Team News
It didn't take long for Fiorentina to show us they're still the same side as last season, with the same problems, and that no evolution took place here.
If anything, it got worse. Fiorentina only scored once in two rounds played so far, and they played against Cagliari and Torino. They have a grand total of two points on the tally, and when you look at the players in the squad, Fiorentina should be scoring freely.
So, we seem to be stuck with a team that you can't bet on when favoured as they're notoriously unreliable, and now we can't even bet on their BTTS and Over 2.5 tendencies. What you can bet on is Fiorentina to not do well. That one goes through most of the time.
This is especially the case in derbies. All the big teams know each other well and have a particular game plan for each opponent. Fiorentina does not have one that works against any of the top sides in Italy, home or away. Their best bet is to simply run out and try to score more if possible. That's not how you play derbies, and this is why their record in them is abysmal.
They have their list of wins against big sides, sure, but 2 wins in last five seasons against Napoli isn't a rule, it's variance. Both were on the road, by the way. The last time Fiorentina won at home against Napoli was seven years ago.
Napoli Team News
Napoli from last season was good, but they won the title with a combination of late goals in key situations, and Inter's underperformance. It was a deserved title but Napoli wasn't that dominant.
This season, Napoli evolved into something completely unexpected, even without Romelu Lukaku who usually carries this team. Suddenly they can do without, as the entire game plan just works and not only chokes the opponent - which they did with success last season too - but produces goalscoring opportunities. This is now one dangerous side that looks close to invincible.
In Conte's second season we'd usually see a sharp decline, but Napoli now looks really, really good. Sure, you could say they only played Sassuolo and Cagliari, but in Italy these are the matches in which you relax a bit and defend more casually, yet Napoli hasn't really surrendered a big chance in 180 minutes.
Defensively, playing Fiorentina will be a bigger challenge, but Napoli defends the entire pitch and this is why their defence works. This looks like a team firmly set on winning another title.
Probable Lineups
Fiorentina (4-2-3-1): De Gea - Comuzzo, Pongracic, Ranieri - Dodo, Mandragora, Caviglia, Fagioli, Gossens - Pioli, Kean. Coach Pioli.
Napoli (4-2-3-1): Meret - Di Lorenzo, Beukema, Juan Jesus, Spinazzola - Lobotka, Anguissa - Politano, De Bruyne, McTominay - Lucca. Coach Conte.
Gudmundsson is doubtful for Fiorentina.
The Betting Market
Napoli is priced at 2.25 to win in Florenze, and it seems like the bookmakers overshot this one. Should be 2.00 at most.
The bookmakers are, surprisingly, expecting a very low-scoring game as the price on Under 2.5 Goals is only 1.60. Haven't they gotten the memo that Fiorentina can't play conservatively and can't defend with full concentration for 90 minutes? Over is the better bet -- the price is 2.40.
The Betting Verdict
Despite all the value in Over 2.5 odds, the bet on Napoli is a no-brainer choice. Fiorentina can't play in derbies against the top sides as they don't really belong to this same group, while Napoli is on fire and wants to keep racing towards another title. Napoli will lose points here only if they will be really careless.
The price is valuable because it's set according to relative table positioning, you can't really give 1.60 on Napoli on the road against a side that usually finishes in the top six and scores a lot. Yet, on the pitch, it will be obvious this will be nothing but a mismatch in Napoli's favour. This is the best bet of this Serie A weekend.
Napoli won 0-3 here last season, in January this year.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Fiorentina 0-2 Napoli
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take Napoli to Win at 2.25 at Bet365
