Italian Serie A
2025-09-14 - Atalanta vs Lecce
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 3
Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia, Bergamo, Lombardy, Italy (21,747)
Sunday, 14 September 2025, 15:00 CET
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Atalanta Team News
So our prediction came true regarding Atalanta being due a regression under new coach Ivan Juric. The offensive mastermind tinkerer Gasperini is gone, and Juric didn't waste any time putting this team under his shackles. Atalanta played Pisa and Parma in the opening two rounds - and drew both games with a 1-1 score.
Truth be told, Atalanta posted a huge xG of 1.91 in the first game, at home against Pisa, but in Parma they only had 0.81. A sign of trouble for sure. What could have a much bigger impact on Atalanta's offensive actions is the absence of Ademola Lookman, who on Friday has trained for the first time under Juric and won't be available for this match just yet.
Gianluca Scamacca hasn't done well so far, so Nikola Krstovic is likely to get a start instead. There is much less creativity on the pitch now compared to last season, so Atalanta is a much more conventional team. Gone are the days when they scored for fun.
Lecce Team News
As you'd expect from Lecce, especially after losing half of their offense by selling Nikola Krstovic to Atalanta, they haven't scored a goal in the first two rounds. It will be a while before they do, and it's bound to be an accidental goal or a long shot, because this team can not create a goalscoring chance the way other teams can.
This is the most stubborn and most defensive side in the league, that is capable of defending for 90 minutes without losing concentration and without ever feeling the urge to open up and go forward. They run a lot and are really difficult to break down.
Probable Lineups
Atalanta (3-4-1-2): Carnesecchi - Scalvini, Hien, Djimsiti - Bellanova, Pasalic, De Roon, Zalewski - De Ketelaere, Maldini - Krstovic. Coach Gasperini.
Lecce (4-3-3): Falcone - Veiga, Gaspar, Tiago Gabriel, Gallo - Coulibaly, Ramadani, Berisha - Pierotti, Stulic, Morente. Coach Di Francesco.
The Betting Market
The price on Atalanta is 1.40, but this would be a bad bet. Lecce is good at defending and doesn't allow much space, and on the other end Atalanta is getting increasingly worse at creating space. Sure, Atalanta is the favourite, but this won't be as easy game for them as the odds suggest.
Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.80 while the Under is priced at 2.00, which means that the bookmakers - or the general public - is leaning towards a 3-0 win here. There's value in Both Teams To Score: NO at 1.75, if you think Lecce's goalscoring woes will continue, which they likely will.
The Betting Verdict
Lecce frustrated AC Milan for a long time in what turned out to be a 0-2 win for the favourites in the previous Serie A round. They will undoubtedly do the same here. In the last six meetings, Atalanta won only one with a handicap, 0-4, so it only goes to show that Atalanta didn't have it easy against Lecce even during their best days.
This is why we're leaning towards the Under here, possibly even towards an Asian Handicap +1.5 on Lecce that is priced around 1.70. The price on Under is higher, 2.00, so let's go with that. Of course an early goal can ruin this, but we see this as a 0-0 half-time result.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Atalanta 1-0 Lecce
