ITALIAN SERIE A BETTING PICK - SASSUOLO V LAZIO

Italian Serie A

2025-09-14 - Sassuolo vs Lazio

A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa

Sassuolo v Lazio
Italy Serie A - Round 3
Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia, Emilia-Romagna, Italy (21,525)
Sunday, 14 September 2025, 18:00 CET
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Sassuolo Team News

The problem with Sassuolo is that we all still remember their consecutive wins against undefeated Juventus and undefeated Inter from two season ago, and as a result we keep expecting them to repeat something like that.

But they haven't repeated it since. This once flamboyant offensive team quickly fizzled out, and as much as you expect them to get back on track - like we did in their season opener here against Napoli - they do no such thing.

As opposed to other relegation candidates, and especially mid-table teams, that all have a plan, Sassuolo seems bound by its giant-killing past and wants to play like that again. But they can't. So, they end up not playing as they should, which is likely some form of counter-attacking football. They keep wanting to play like an offensive side, but they end up being pushed into their own half without the ball. So it doesn't really work. Sassuolo is so toothless it's incredible.

Actually, at one point in the Cremonese match, upon trailing 2-0, Sassuolo decided to go for broke and finally managed to produce something in offense. They equalized to 2-2, but lost 3-2 because they were too open. They ended up conceding 3.31 xG against lowly Cremonese -- this isn't serious football.

Lazio Team News

Lazio destroyed Verona 4-0 at home after losing 2-0 in Como, but we shouldn't care too much about either of those results. Lazio is still the same team as we expect them to be, which means they're unreliable favourites and they can't really be trusted. Yet, on the other hand, they have enough offensive weapons to overpower teams that are much weaker than them.

This is why you see Lazio unable to resist smooth-passing Como, and why you see Lazio score four past Verona, a team that has low quality yet likes to open up even on their travels.

We assume this will be a similar test for Lazio as the Verona game. The opponent is of similar quality and of similar playing style. The game is on the road so it's a bigger test for sure, but Lazio tends to look like an Italian giant when paired against relegation candidates.

Lazio could actually do quite well with a win here as they'd forget all about the Como blunder, and would prepare for the Roma derby in good spirits.

Probable Lineups

Sassuolo (4-3-3): Turati - Coulibaly, Idzes, Muharemovic, Doig - Lipani, Vrancx, Kone - Berardi, Pinamonti, Lauriente. Coach Grosso.

Lazio (4-3-3): Provedel - Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Tavares - Guendouzi, Cataldi, Dele-Bashiru - Cancellieri, Castellanos, Zaccagni. Coach Sarri.

The Betting Market

The price on Lazio is 2.00 and at some lower-profile bookmakers it goes up to 2.08 or so. It's good value. Lazio is known to be a good visitor, as they're direct and offensive, and are actually tailor-made to win matches such as this one.

The Over/Under market is evenly split while the BTTS market is leaning towards a Yes with 1.75. We actually see this as a low-scoring game. Sassuolo doesn't have the fire in offense, and when only one side does the scoring it's difficult to push the totals past two.

The Betting Verdict

As mentioned earlier, Lazio is a firm favourite here. Whatever credit Sassuolo has here comes from two seasons ago and from the name of Domenico Berardi. But we haven't seen anything noteworthy from Sassuolo in 180 minutes so far, and we refuse to give them any further credit until they earn it on the pitch.

Lazio has just enough disruptive players - Dele-Bashiru and Dia - to unlock matches such as this one. We see this as a one-way alley in which Sassuolo won't be able to resist, same as they failed to resist their first two opponents.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :

Take Lazio to Win at 2.00 at Bet365

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