Italian Serie A
2025-09-15 - Hellas Verona vs Cremonese
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 3
Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Verona, Veneto, Italy (31,045)
Monday, 15 September 2025, 18:30 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
Verona Team News
This is a relegation duel, the one where it always makes sense to back the home team to win a tight encounter, but Verona isn't really the type of team that is well-suited for these kind of matches. Last season, in so-called relegation six-pointers, they only won once, against Venezia 2-1.
Torino, Monza, Empoli and Cagliari all came back from Verona with three points in their pocket, and all but Cagliari scored at least three goals. That one was 0-2.
The reason for this is simple. Hellas Verona never really controls the match, they just play fluid-passing football and hope for the best. No control whatsoever. At times, it works so they win, and it doesn't matter whether it's a home or away game, Cremonese or Inter. On a good day, Verona wins.
Do note that Verona is actually better on the road where they can simply play without pressure. This is the situation in which they thrive. At home, in the role of favourite? Not so much.
The newcomer from Brazil, young Giovane, will win Verona some points this season as he can create something out of nothing and score without any external help. So he's like a wildcard for when Verona are in a tough spot. A goal can always come simply because you have this guy on the pitch.
Cremonese Team News
Cremonese has two wins out of two, in case you missed it. They first shocked Milan on San Siro, then proceeded to win a difficult match against Sassuolo, where the Neroverdi came back from a 2-0 deficit only to have Cremonese score the 3-2 winner.
This looks like a tough little team with a solid game plan. Centre-back Baschirotto is a physically imposing leader of this side, and it some of this seems to rub off on every other player in the team. With two wins so far, confidence must by sky high. Cremonese players see this as yet another opportunity to get the points, rightfully so. They passed both tests so far, and here they have a very similar match to the Sassuolo one.
Probable Lineups
Verona (3-5-2): Montipo - Nunez, Nelsson, Frese - Belghali, Serdar, Galgiardini, Bernede, Bradaric - Giovane, Orban. Coach Zanetti.
Cremonese (3-5-2): Audero - Terracciano, Baschirotto, Bianchetti - Zerbin, Collocolo, Grassi, Sarmiento, Pezzella - Sanabria, Vazquez. Coach Nicola.
The Betting Market
As expected, the home team is a slight favourite, but it seems the bookmakers overdid it with 2.50. Should be 2.75 or so, where Verona would only get a slight home advantage and that's it. The price on Cremonese is 3.25 and that right there is a good punt for all you value seekers. It's the type of bet that will get you a large Cash Out offered if/when Cremonese is ahead.
Some more value is to be had in the Over/Under market as the bookmakers see this as a solid Under, priced at incredibly low 1.53. That's what you give for a game that you expect to end 0-0. The 2.50 on Over 2.5 Goals is the bet to make.
Both Teams To Score: YES is priced at 2.05 while the NO is set at 1.70. Both teams usually score when Verona and Cremonese meet.
The Betting Verdict
Cremonese is the favourite here. The way this team is set up is impressive, from the back line to their direct ways in offense, and it seems like a grown-up football team compared to Verona that looks like a bunch of kids that chase the ball in the park. They chase it well -- but they're kids regardlessly.
Away victory isn't much of a punt then, is it? Cremonese has two wins so far, Verona has none. The odds that slightly favour the hosts allow people to make a decent profit with a Double Chance bet. It's priced at 1.53 while you can get 1.55 on the equivalent in the Asian Handicap market, AH+0.50. You can also get 1.78 on AH+0.25, where a draw would make for a half-win. Cremonese to score is priced at 1.50, which is even better value than the Double Chance.
However. The official bet will be something that makes use of the wrongly set Over/Under odds, and something that also gets us our stake back if we just slightly miss the Over by a goal.
Over 2.0 Goals is priced at 1.85. Stake back if we get stuck with exactly two goals. We can't lose.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Verona 1-2 Cremonese
