Italian Serie A
2025-09-21 - Fiorentina vs Como
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 4
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florenze, Tuscany, Italy (43,147)
Sunday, 21 September 2025, 18:00 CET
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Fiorentina Team News
Fiorentina isn't scoring freely, and that's an understatement. They scored once against Cagliari and once against Napoli in a 1-3 defeat, and that's it as the Torino match was, in hindsight, expectedly scoreless.
Things won't change for this team any time soon. Their lacklustre defending usually means they concede, and on the other hand they aren't managing to play the offensive style they are striving for. It got worse this season. In the last two seasons, Fiorentina would play fun football with lots of quality actions and a very low conversion rate. Now the number of quality actions has dried up, and consequently so did the number of goals scored.
Como Team News
Como will, it seems, be a classic underish short-passing Spanish style team because under 2.5 is what happens when you pass the ball around endlessly and the opponent can't have it. Como had 63% and 64% possession against Lazio and Bologna respectively, and then went down to 53% against Genoa. It will be rare to see Como score more than one goal, too, and when they do score it is most likely to come from Nico Paz.
There's a lot more work for Cesc Fabregas to do here before Como starts scoring freely and before other players in this team start taking responsibility. It won't happen overnight but Como is on a good path.
Probable Lineups
Fiorentina (3-5-1-1): De Gea - Comuzzo, Pongracic, Ranieri - Dodo, Mandragora, Caviglia, Fagioli, Gosens - Fazzini - Kean. Coach Pioli.
Como (4-2-3-1): Butez - Vojvoda, Carlos, Kempf, Valle - Caqueret, Da Cunha - Kuhn, Paz, Rodriguez - Morata. Coach Fabregas.
Moise Kean had fever but he's back in training. Gudmundsson could also play for Fiorentina here.
The Betting Market
Como is priced at 2.70, and Fiorentina is just slightly favoured at 2.63, so the bookmakers actually see Como as the better side. Asian Handicap 0 is basically even.
Both Teams To Score: YES is priced at 1.80 and there's decent value here if you think Fiorentina will find the net. Como likely will, regardless of what happens in terms of final result.
Some more value can be found in Under 2.5 Goals, priced at around 1.75. Take it if you find 1.80 or so.
The Betting Verdict
We keep waiting for Como to perform and start getting results, but apparently they do so sporadically, when you don't expect them to. They beat Lazio, but then have a lot more problems when they face a relegation candidate or a mid-table team.
This is perhaps indicative of something. Maybe Como plays best when the opponent opens up, as against defensive teams their short-passing becomes essentially fruitless. If this assumption is true, then Como should look good against wide open Fiorentina, even more so because Fiorentina is playing host and must go forward.
We'll gladly take the Draw No Bet on Como.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Fiorentina 0-1 Como
