Italian Serie A
2025-09-28 - AC Milan vs Napoli
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 5
San Siro, Milano, Lombardy, Italy (80,018)
Sunday, 28 September 2025, 20:45 CET
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Milan Team News
If you look at the scores, you'd think this is Inter Milan from two years ago, a team that steamrolls all opponents. Just look at this: 2-0, 1-0, 3-0, 3-0. You simply can't score against this Milan side! Okay, they got a warning with that Cremonese debacle but then got their act together and started dominating. Right?
Wrong. Lecce, Bologna, Udinese and again Lecce in the cup weren't adequate opponents for Milan. Udinese in particular. In that game, Modric was essentially an anchor in front of the defensive pair and he'd slowly bring the ball forward to the final third. You'd have to see it to believe it, Modric could literally give a high five to the defenders, that's how close he was. And not once but all the time. "Let me carry that ball for you mate". "And dont' worry about a thing".
This completely and utterly pacified Udinese and made the game a one-way street. Milan walked Udinese off a cliff. This Modric anchor stuff is such a low trick, it won't work in any serious game. If it does, we're witnessing a revolution in football, Modric is the cheat code, and Max Allegri is a genius.
However, Milan still has glaring holes all over. The defence is shaky, the midfielders can't score when presented with an opportunity, and Santiago Gimenez is still the first choice forward. The likes of Udinese or Lecce can't exploit Milan, but any good team can.
Napoli Team News
Napoli is probably the most serious team in Italy right now. Juventus could have been a contender but the defence is laughable, Inter is slowly degrading with the same old players, and champions Napoli look stronger than ever in their quest to win consecutive titles.
Antonio Conte and his crew won four straight, and were only humbled in the Champions League by Man City, as they aren't yet on the level where they can do something in Europe.
It will be a while before Romelu Lukaku returns but his injury turned to be a blessing in disguise as Napoli had to tap the transfer market and pick up Rasmus Hojlund of Atalanta fame. He scored once in three appearances since returning to Serie A, but undoubtedly he has a lot more ammo and will soon start scoring for fun.
Probable Lineups
Milan (3-5-2): Maignan - Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic - Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Rabiot, Estupinan - Pulisic, Gimenez. Coach Allegri.
Napoli (4-1-4-1): Meret - Di Lorenzo, Beukema, Juan Jesus, Spinazzola - Lobotka - Politano, Anguissa, De Bruyne, McTominay - Hojlund. Coach Conte.
In the continued absence of a proper striker, Pulisic will again pair up with Gimenez. Rafael Leao will be on the bench as he returns from injury. Conte will likely change formation so he has five midfielders instead of the usual three.
The Betting Market
For some unknown reason, Milan is the favourite, at 2.35, with odds dropping as we speak. Must be the people who haven't yet watched a full Milan game this season and that only bothered to check the past results. You can get 3.10 on the draw and 3.20 on Napoli.
A low-scoring game is expected as the price on Under 2.5 Goals is 1.67. Must be because of Milan's rock-solid defence.
The BTTS market is split down the middle at 1.91 for both options, and we're definitely leaning towards a Yes. If Milan is the favourite as everyone apparently thinks, then they'll score, and Napoli is the better side so they'll score too.
The Betting Verdict
Lobotka will likely be tasked with man-marking Modric. An exercise in futility, sure, but if we look at the other eight midfielders on the pitch today then Napoli's four is superior. It will be very difficult for Milan to hold its own here, and it would only be possible if Modric plays a brilliant game.
It's incredibly difficult to play against Napoli. Or against Conte in general. The high-tempo game is too much for most teams to handle, and we can only expect the pedestrian-pace Milan to have problems here.
Milan doesn't do well in derbies. Juventus, Inter and Napoli do, and Conte is of course very often the winner regardless of the team he's coaching at that moment.
Of course, in a derby anything can happen. But we think a lot of things have to go right in order for Milan to get a victory in a football match. Here it will be very difficult for them to do so, and they have a lot of holes in their gameplay that Conte can exploit. Our bet is Napoli straight up. Honeymoon period for Milan is over - right after this they're playing Juventus and then soon enough Fiorentina, Atalanta, Roma, Inter and Lazio. Only two games until December will be easy, Pisa and Parma. Make or break time.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Milan 1-2 Napoli
