Italian Serie A
2025-10-24 - AC Milan vs Pisa
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 8
San Siro, Milano, Lombardy, Italy (80,018)
Friday, 24 October 2025, 20:45 CET
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Milan Team News
Unburdened by European football, Milan spent the midweek training and looking at the Serie A table, where they're at the summit. And they can definitely claim that position for another week if they beat Pisa here, and then watch as other scudetto contenders take points off each other as this round brings us Napoli v Inter, Lazio v Juventus, while both Atalanta and Roma play on the road. Someone will drop points for sure.
Rafael Leao returned from a lenghty spell on the sidelines in the best possible way, with two goals against Fiorentina, and, more importantly, two home goals. The man hasn't scored at home for more than 500 days -- he is far more suited to playing on the road where he has more space than at home where the defences are congested.
He will likely lead the line here together with Santi Gimenez. As Pulisic is still injured it's a no-brainer to pair these two, and when he returns, Gimenez might be the odd one out.
Pisa Team News
Pisa could be the perfect team to bet against, the classic minnow that does poorly overall but even more so on the road, and poses no threat in offense so upsets just can't happen. Pisa hasn't scored in four consecutive matches now including the cup outing at Torino, and even failed to do so in the previous round, a home fixture against Verona, where Pisa had only 7 shots, none on target. That's Pisa for you.
Unlike the comparable team of Cremonese, Pisa can't combine their way into the opponent's box, just watch them play and you'll see why. We said it before - it's like watching a team full of central defenders trying to create chances.
Pisa will score eventually and sporadically - all teams do - but it's safe to expect them to remain scoreless in every single game they play. That's the default.
Probable Lineups
Milan (3-5-2): Maignan - De Winter, Gabbia, Pavlovic - Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Ricci, Bartesaghi - Gimenez, Leao. Coach Allegri.
Pisa (3-5-2): Šemper - Caracciolo, Albiol, Canestrelli - Toure, Akinsanmiro, Aebischer, Marin, Leris - Tramoni, Nzola. Coach Gilardino.
Pulisic, Rabiot and Jashari are still out for Milan but Saelemakers is fine.
The Betting Market
The price on Milan is 1.29 and it's a good banker. Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.73 and, obviously, the question here is whether Milan will score two or three plus. We're leaning towards the Under here for 2.10 as Milan doesn't mind a slow game and teams rarely care about handicap wins - they simply want the points. However, Pisa lost 4-0 at Bologna in their last visiting game, so they can fall apart.
Both Teams To Score: NO is a decent bet at 1.62. Pisa scored at Atalanta and Napoli (twice), and then failed to do so against Torino in the cup and against Bologna in the league.
The Betting Verdict
Without a shadow of the doubt, Milan's game plan here will look like this: slow pace, full control of the proceedings by one Luka Modric, few if any Pisa trips to Milan's half of the pitch. We saw this on the road against Udinese, where the other team was completely choked, and will see it here again.
You can bet on shots, you can bet on corner kicks - things that stem from domination on the pitch - or you can bet on the underlying cause which is possession, as we expect 65% or more for the home side here. The Team Shots line is set at 18.5, and Milan had 24 v Lecce in the cup, 24 v Cremonese, and a bit less on the road, 14 v Lecce and 13 v Udinese.
But we think the best bet is simply to bet on Milan to not concede in this win that's a certainty. Sure, you'll say Cremonese scored twice in this same scenario, but Pisa is much weaker and incapable of launching counter attacks, and Milan will be much more careful this time around.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Milan 2-0 Pisa
