Conference League
2025-11-06 - Mainz vs Fiorentina
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; UEFA Conference League: 3rd Round
MEWA Arena - Mainz
Thursday, 06th November 2025 - kickoff 18:45 CET
Mainz
Unlike in the Bundesliga, where they are a disaster, sitting second from the bottom, Mainz has played well in Europe so far.
They won both their games against Omonia Nicosia away and Zrinjski Mostar at home with identical 1-0, which is not spectacular, but still managed to keep clean sheets. They seem focused on this competition, but now they have an opponent who is stronger than their first two opponents.
Mainz’s domestic form has been patchy – they are winless in six games across competitions, suffering five straight defeats, and drawing 1-1 against Werder Bremen last week.
Their home form is also poor – they have just one win (against Zrinjski) in their last six, losing four times, and drawing once.
Fiorentina
Fiorentina’s profile is interesting. In the UEFA Conference League group stage, they’ve also started well - two wins, no goals conceded.
They convincingly won 2-0 against Sigma Olomouc, followed by a 0-3 away win against Rapid Wien, so they have some European momentum going.
Yet, in their domestic campaign, they’ve been terrible. A worrying sign is that Fiorentina is rooted to the bottom of the Italian Serie A, having failed to win any of their 10 league games so far (four draws, six defeats). Most recently, they lost 0-1 to Lecce last weekend, showing another poor performance.
What that suggests to me is that Fiorentina brings quality and a good record in this European competition, but they may have some fragile moments on this trip.
The Betting Verdict
I’m leaning toward the idea that this will be a tight game. Mainz defends well in Europe, and at home, they’ll try to make this a structured game. They are perhaps slightly under pressure, given their domestic struggles, and will want a solid performance.
Fiorentina, comfortable in the UEFA Conference League but a bit shaky away and in domestic form, may try to break the hosts early but could find Mainz organised.
Given both teams’ recent domestic struggles and contrasting European form, I see a match where one goal can make the difference.
I’m expecting something like Mainz 1-0 win or 1-1 draw. If I had to pick the outcome, I’d go with a home win for Mainz by 1-0 - I feel they have the slight edge here at their ground in this competition.
Still, my main betting recommendation for this match is taking under 2.5 goals.
The Pick :
Mainz 1-0 Fiorentina
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.75 at @12Play
