Italian Serie A
2025-11-08 - Parma vs AC Milan
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 11
Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma, Emilia-Romagna, Italy (22,352)
Saturday, 08 November 2025, 20:45 CET
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Parma Team News
There's nothing new in Parma, not even a coaching change, as apparently 1 win in 10 rounds is good enough. So Parma keeps playing boring matches that they eventually lose, especially on the road as they're by far the lowest-scoring visitor in Serie A, with only one goal scored in six matches.
At home they seem to be doing rather well with a 1-2-2 and a goal-difference of 4:6, but this is heavily skewed by the low quality of opponents they've faced, as well as by the late equalizer against Atalanta. Parma somehow won 2-1 against Torino and that's basically everything they've done so far in this season.
AC Milan Team News
Milan sealed a crucial win against Roma in the derby last week, they really showed real determination and concentration to take the points there. This result came after a mini-crisis that included a 1-1 against Atalanta and, more worryingly, a home 2-2 against Pisa. The Roma result means that Milan is now at a 2-2-0 record in derbies this season. They won against Napoli too, and played 0-0 with Juventus as Pulisic missed a spot kick.
Milan can be expected to play a slow game in Parma. Modric will play anchor in front of the defence, and will come back deep to get the ball and slowly carry it forward to ensure maximum possession and minimal risk. This is how Milan played in Udine and the win was never in question, the final score was 0-3.
Probable Lineups
Parma (3-5-2): Suzuki - Delprato, Circati, Ndiaye - Lovik, Bernabe, Keita, Sorensen, Valeri - Cutrone, Pellegrino. Coach Pecchia.
Milan (3-5-2): Maignan - Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic - Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Ricci, Bartesaghi - Nkunku, Leao. Coach Allegri.
Pulisic will be on the bench for Milan, and Gimenez will likely miss out. Rabiot is still not back.
The Betting Market
The price on Milan is 1.53 on match day, but savvy punters could have gotten 1.57 on Friday as the price dropped rapidly. There is indeed a reason for that -- the 1.57 was a very, very good offer as we rate Milan as a 1.50 favourite. Or even less.
The Both Teams To Score market is priced roughly the same as Over/Under, with 2.10 for Yes and 1.70 for No.
Over 2.5 is priced at 2.10 while the Under carries the price of 1.72. The question here is whether you think Parma will score. If you think they will, then it's an Over as Milan will score 2.
The Betting Verdict
Parma is one of the weakest competitors in this league as they always seem to lose with ease, even to fellow relegation candidates, and they haven't shown the ability to make things interesting against big favourites. Every other side did something to a big six team this season -- Parma did not. Okay, there was a 1-1 home draw against Atalanta with a late strike, but Atalanta is a troubled team.
Milan, on the other hand, is a side in whose ability to win football matches we trust more than almost any other team. Only Inter is better in this regard. Milan has its own share of problems that won't go away anytime soon, but they somehow hobble their way to a win.
Parma won't even have the ball here. Take the banker that is Milan's win on this short trip to Parma.
The Pick :
Parma 0-2 Milan
