Italian Serie A
2025-11-09 - Genoa vs Fiorentina
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 11
Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa, Liguria, Italy (33,205)
Sunday, 09 November 2025, 15:00 CET
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Genoa Team News
Although a sporting director and coach change was considered, in the end coach Patrick Vieira is the only one who left and he'll be replaced by Daniele De Rossi who had one largely unsuccessful stint at Roma. De Rossi can be considered an offensive coach.
It remains to be seen what can he do in Genoa, a side that has a really poorly put together roster that can't compete in Serie A. Genoa seriously lacks good forwards so it's impossible to devise a good game plan.
Fiorentina Team News
Fiorentina did a coaching change of their own, but so far we only know that Stefano Pioli was sacked. Interim coach will take charge of this match.
In case of Fiorentina, we can probably trace all problems back to the coach, as the roster looks good on paper and really should be performing much better on the pitch. Fiorentina is winless so far this season, and is locked to the bottom of the table with only 4 points. Genoa has 6.
Probable Lineups
Genoa (4-2-3-1): Leali - Sabelli, Marcandalli, Vasquez, Martin - Masini, Frendrup - Norton-Cuffy, Malinovsky, Ellertsson - Colombo. Coach De Rossi.
Cremonese (3-5-2): Audero - F.Terracciano, Baschirotto, Bianchetti - Zerbin, Bondo, Grassi, Vazquez, Pezzella - Vardy, Bonazzoli. Coach Galloppa.
The Betting Market
There's no favourite here; all three outcomes are priced pretty much the same. The price on Under 2.5 Goals though is the lowest we've seen this season in Serie A, only 1.43. This is getting preposterous. The value is definitely on the Over for 2.75.
The Both Teams To Score market isn't worth exploring as we can get 2.10 for Yes and 1.67 for No. It's far better to search for value in the two main markets.
The Betting Verdict
The question to ask here is which team will benefit from a shock, Genoa or Fiorentina. Genoa is a poor side throughout and will continue to be poor even with a new coach as the roster wasn't built correctly. Fiorentina has much more potential and a new coach should be able to at least start moving in the positive direction.
Fiorentina should have been a top-7 or top-8 team, and if they truly did have results to match, the price on them here would be 1.80. So, if we think they have a chance to become such a team, then 3.00 on their victory here becomes very tempting. Everyone beats Genoa. Fiorentina might, too.
The Pick :
Genoa 1-2 Fiorentina
