German Bundesliga
2025-11-21 - Mainz vs TSG Hoffenheim
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
MEWA Arena – Mainz
Friday, 21st November 2025 - kickoff 20:30 CET
Mainz
Mainz are getting desperate. After 10 Bundesliga rounds, they have only five points, which is the fewest points they have ever had at this stage of a Bundesliga season.
Also, Mainz are leaking goals a lot and are now on an all-time negative run of 21 straight matches in which they have conceded a goal.
Furthermore, for the first time in their history, Mainz is winless at home in 10 consecutive matches across two seasons, having lost 4 and drawn 6.
Now the pressure is huge on them, with TSG Hoffenheim, SC Freiburg, and Borussia Monchengladbach being their next three opponents before they face Bayern Munich. Two wins would be ideal, and one of those should come here, in this game.
Mainz were not all that bad in their recent games. Their last two games against Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt ended in a 1-1 draw and 1-0 defeat, and in both they conceded late in the match. Perhaps this match could be a turning point, and they had a fair amount of time to regroup and prepare during the break.
TSG Hoffenheim
TSG Hoffenheim were on a terrific run before the international break, winning four straight Bundesliga matches.
That is their longest winning run in the past couple of years, and if they win on this trip, TSG Hoffenheim will set an all-time club record of consecutive Bundesliga wins.
What has been impressive about TSG Hoffenheim and their last four straight wins is that they scored 3+ goals in each of those victories!
Goals have been on their menu for quite a long time now, with 13 of their last 15 Bundesliga matches ending with three or more goals scored.
The Betting Verdict
TSG Hoffenheim is no doubt the better side overall, but perhaps the international break will disrupt their excellent winning rhythm.
Mainz are under heat, and I expect them to give extra effort in this match. TSG Hoffenheim has been one of their favorite opponents at home in recent years.
Impressively, Mainz is unbeaten in six straight home games against them, beating TSG Hoffenheim four times.
The odds on the home win look solid, so given the pressure and importance of the match, I give Mainz the edge to get the three points.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Mainz 2-1 TSG Hoffenheim
