Italian Serie A
2025-11-22 - Cagliari vs Genoa
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 12
Unipol Domus, Cagliari, Sardinia, Italy (16,416)
Saturday, 22 November 2025, 15:00 CET
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Cagliari Team News
It's been a while since Cagliari won against anyone in this league - seven matches, to be exact - so the Sardinians seem to be trending downwards after seeing decent success early in the season. And it's not like they played the big teams exclusively -- the seven-match span included Udinese, Verona, Sassuolo and Como.
Cagliari is supposed to be a decent team at home, and should be getting a win here and there regardless of the opponent, but this has been absent in recent weeks and months. Cagliari only has one home win this season, the 2-0 against Parma.
Genoa Team News
Genoa conveniently fired the head coach Patrick Vieira just before the international break, and therefore gave the new one Daniele De Rossi a chance to work with the team for two full weeks. In addition to this, De Rossi oversaw an exciting 2-2 home draw with Fiorentina in his first match in charge.
It remains to be seen what can De Rossi to with this limited roster. We know for a fact he's an offensive-minded coach, as proven by the way he approached the Roma job, and perhaps proven even further by the four-goal thriller against Fiorentina.
If he can wake up Genoa's offense, that alone would be a worthwhile feat.
Probable Lineups
Cagliari (4-3-2-1): Caprile - Palestra, Mina, Luperto, Obert - Adopo, Prati, Deiola - S.Esposito, Folorunsho - Borelli. Coach Pisacane.
Genoa (4-2-3-1): Leali - Sabelli, Marcandalli, Vasquez, Martin - Masini, Frendrup - Norton-Cuffy, Malinovsky, Ellertsson - Colombo. Coach De Rossi.
The Betting Market
There's no favourite here as the price on Cagliari is 2.80, with 2.75 on Genoa, but this actually means that the bookmakers see Genoa as the stronger side, as the home field advantage hasn't made Cagliari the favourite.
Under 2.5 Goals is seemingly set in stone, with a price of 1.44. You can get 2.75 on the Over. Both Teams To Score: YES is priced at 2.10 while the NO option is priced at 1.67.
The Betting Verdict
It's interesting that Genoa is dominating this H2H. Cagliari only won one of last eleven meetings, while Genoa won six times. We wouldn't be surprised if Genoa did well again, due to the new coach factor and due to the fact that they scored 2 goals in two consecutive matches, getting four points with this newly found offensive approach. It will be difficult for Cagliari to get the three points here.
However, all value seems to be in the Over 2.5 Goals bet. The bookmakers are wrongly expecting a tight affair, yet everything points to the opposite. Meetings between these two sides usually have goals on both ends, and Genoa will certainly play on the front foot here, searching for goals. On the other end you got Cagliari, a side well-known for its fighting back ability. We see at least three goals here despite the odds that suggest otherwise.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Cagliari 1-2 Genoa
