Italian Serie A
2025-11-22 - Napoli vs Atalanta
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 12
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples, Campania, Italy (54,726)
Saturday, 22 November 2025, 20:45 CET
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Napoli Team News
Conte's Napoli now hasn't scored in three consecutive rounds, which is no surprise if you watch them play. They can reach the final third. Done.
You'd be forgiven for mistaking Napoli for an offensive side after watching them pass through the lines, finding open space, playing on the front foot. Yet when the going gets tough and actual defenders need to be bypassed, all creativity evaporates and Napoli is unable to create a goalscoring chance, even a poor one.
If the opponent happens to be defensive, that makes matters even worse for Napoli, as it becomes impossible for them to score. Without Kevin De Bruyne, the most direct and offensively able player is Scott McTominay, a truly spectacular player, but one who plied his trade in England as a defensive midfielder. And that he is. He can't be expected to create chances or have a smooth touch in tight spaces. And this is something that Napoli as a team is completely deprived of. The league took notice.
Atalanta Team News
After all but destroying everything his predecessor Gasperini built in Bergamo, Ivan Juric was sacked and now Rafaelle Palladino in charge of rebuilding this once formidable offensive team. Atalanta can't play any worse than they did this season, so anything Palladino does will be an improvement. His main task will be to convert the good offensive gameplay into goals, which is where Juric failed miserably.
The roster is packed with quality players yet very few of them, if any, are natural goalscorers. The closest to this ideal is Nikola Krstovic, with Gianluca Scamacca still injured and his days of glory are a distant memory anyway. We'll see how Palladino solves the puzzle that is the setup of the offensive part of the team.
Probable Lineups
Napoli (4-3-3): Milinkovic-Savic - Di Lorenzo, Juan Jesus, Buongiorno, Spinazzola - Anguissa, Gilmour, McTominay - Politano, Hojlund, Neres. Coach Conte.
Atalanta (3-4-3): Carnesecchi - Djimsiti, Hien, De Roon - Bellanova, Ederson, Pasalic, Zalewski - De Ketelaere, Krstovic, Lookman. Coach Palladino.
The Betting Market
Napoli is a 2.25 favourite, which would make sense if De Bruyne was here and if Atalanta didn't just get a new coach. We'd actually lean the other way and say there's a scenario where Atalanta can get lucky and score a couple of goals to take the win. You can get 3.40 on the visitors.
Under 2.5 Goals is the favoured option at 1.73, with 2.10 on the Over. Both Teams To Score: YES is priced at 1.80.
The Betting Verdict
Napoli and Atalanta are offensive juggernauts, right? Nine of the last ten meetings produced over 2.5 goals, and so did all derbies that Napoli played this season - against Fiorentina, Milan and Inter.
But if we look at the recent trends we'd call this as 0-0. Napoli can't score to save their life, Atalanta is equally toothless though at least they create the chances, lots of them. And Conte is aware of this. He will probably set this up to get one of his famed 1-0 wins. He will first lock Atalanta up and then try to score.
Atalanta, being the weaker team, won't be able to resist and will have to play along with this game plan. This will lead to a low-scoring derby.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Napoli 1-1 Atalanta
