Italian Serie A
2025-11-23 - Hellas Verona vs Parma
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 12
Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Verona, Veneto, Italy (31,045)
Sunday, 23 November 2025, 12:30 CET
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Verona Team News
This could be the day. Verona is still without a win and now they're hosting probably the only side worse than themselves. It's not like Verona's home schedule has been difficult -- they faced Cremonese, Sassuolo and Cagliari and failed to beat them all. It seems like all they need is a little bit of luck, as this team is playing well and is looking like they'll win the game, except that in the end they don't.
Most of Verona's matches against fellow relegation candidates are draws (regardless of the venue), but all are low-scoring. Interestingly, Verona usually doesn't manage to score. It's like it's easier for them to score against big teams than it is against fellow relegation candidates.
Parma Team News
Parma has, interestingly, managed to score in the last three rounds despite playing Roma, Bologna and Milan. This negates everything we thought we know about Parma and we might need to reconsider the stance that this is a toothless low-scoring team.
It's possible that Parma abandoned their defensive posture as it didn't quite work out. Now, after the 2-2 draw against the mighty Milan, they will surely want to play on the front foot again as it obviously produces results.
Probable Lineups
Verona (3-5-2): Montipo - Nelsson, Bella-Kotchap, Valentini - Belghali, Serdar, Gagliardini, Bernede, Frese - Giovane, Orban. Coach Zanetti.
Milan (3-5-2): Maignan - Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic - Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Ricci, Bartesaghi - Nkunku, Leao. Coach Allegri.
The Betting Market
As expected, Verona is favoured in this relegation six-pointer, perhaps a bit too much as the price is 2.25. We'd expect something like 2.60. This means all the value is on Parma -- not only the 3.60 on them straight-up but also on the double chance and on any Asian handicap.
Under 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.53 but we'd advise against considering this a banker. Parma was involved in high-scoring affairs recently, and Verona always has the potential to. As a result of expected low number of goals, Both Teams To Score: YES is priced at 2.05 while the NO option is priced at 1.75.
The Betting Verdict
If Parma will indeed assume an offensive stance here, and we have no reason to think otherwise as the defensive one didn't quite work out, then this game will have goals on both ends. Verona can play football and can score against any side on a good day. We think Parma is closer to winning this but Verona should be able to contribute at least a goal.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Verona 1-1 Parma
