Italian Serie A
2025-11-23 - Cremonese vs AS Roma
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 12
Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona, Lombardy, Italy (20,641)
Sunday, 23 November 2025, 15:00 CET
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Cremonese Team News
Cremonese finally started losing -- first to Juventus at home and then to Pisa on the road. This comes after a long list of matches where Cremonese didn't lose, with the exception of the expected high defeat when this side visited Inter Milan.
We can think of this as a sign of the Serie A euphoria waning, or just as a natural variance of results, depends on how you look at it. The Pisa match really could have gone either way as both sides posted an xG of 1.00 and 13-14 shots, and it's understandable to lose a game against Juventus.
For all practical purposes, we'll continue to rate Cremonese and think of them as a hard nut to crack and a competent counter-attacking side.
Roma Team News
Almost two months after doing it for the first time, in a 2-0 home win against Verona, Roma defeated someone with a handicap. Twice. First they won 0-2 on the road against Glasgow Rangers, and then defeated Udinese 2-0 at home. Note the clean sheets that are Roma's trademark this season despite getting themselves an offensive mastermind in Gian Piero Gasperini.
There's nothing else to say about Roma -- this is a confident, well-coached side with one world class player in Paulo Dybala. And that's exactly how they play. The most common outcome of Roma's matches is a 1-0 win.
Probable Lineups
Cremonese (3-5-2): Audero - F.Terracciano, Baschirotto, Bianchetti - Barbieri, Payero, Bondo, Vandeputte, Floriani - Vardy, Bonazzoli. Coach Nicola.
Roma (3-4-2-1): Svilar - Hermoso, Mancini, Ndicka - Celik, Kone, Cristante, Wesley - Soule, Pellegrini - Dybala. Coach Gasperini.
The Betting Market
The price on Roma is 1.62 and this is far too little. This is as if Cremonese is a pushover and it's only a question if Roma will score or miss their chances. Far from it. Cremonese is a serious team that can cause problems to anyone in this league, including the top sides.
Under 2.5 Goals is the favoured outcome, with a price of 1.73, while the Over is priced at 2.10. Almost the same prices, but the other way around, are seen in the BTTS market as Yes is priced at 2.00 and No is priced at 1.75.
Perhaps it's important to note that we got 1.80 on Cremonese to score against Juventus (and they did, a consolation goal), and here the price is 1.72. The bookmakers took note of the fact that Cremonese can counter just about anyone.
The Betting Verdict
Roma's defence is rock solid and while we still think Cremonese will score, we wouldn't take 1.72 on that after getting 1.80 against a worse defence. Instead, we think this match will end either with a classic Roma 0-1, or a 1-1 if Cremonese finds the net. The 1-2 is the least likely of the three, as both teams will look to keep this match low-scoring, so we'll gladly take the Under for the suggested price.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Cremonese 1-1 Roma
