Italian Serie A
2025-11-29 - AC Milan vs Lazio
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 13
San Siro, Milano, Lombardy, Italy (80,018)
Saturday, 29 November 2025, 20:45 CET
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Milan Team News
After failing to beat Pisa on San Siro, Milan gifted two major wins to the home fans in the next two home matches -- first they took care of Roma 1-0 and then did the same to city rivals Inter Milan. This is the third derby in a row for the Rossoneri and there will be another one in the cup as these same teams, Lazio and Milan, meet in Rome next Thursday.
No one in the red part of Milano dares to say the word scudetto out loud, but that's exactly what this side is after. Even at this stage, they're aware that each point is priceless, because a certain someone with the shirt #14 taught them that that's how titles are won. Milan is currently 2nd on the league table, a point behind Roma that's hosting Napoli. Milan could kill three birds with one stone here if that match ends as a draw. They'd be on top, with both Roma and Napoli losing important two points.
Lazio Team News
Lazio looks really stable recently, with one defeat in the last nine rounds (to Inter on the road -- you don't really count such things), and perhaps it's important to note that Lazio only had one BTTS match in the entire season. They either win to nil or lose to nil, and they had two 0-0 results. The only high-scoring affair they were involved with is that strange match against Torino that ended 3-3 and that Lazio should have lost.
On the road, Lazio is abysmal. They won 0-3 at troubled Genoa as we expected they would, and that's their only win in Serie A in six attempts. The 0-0 against Atalanta was their best result if we look at opponent quality, but Lazio should have lost that one cleanly, it's incredible that Atalanta hasn't scored two or three goals there.
Probable Lineups
Milan (3-5-2): Maignan - Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic - Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi - Leao, Nkunku. Coach Allegri.
Lazio (4-3-3): Provedel - Lazzari, Gila, Romagnoli, Marusic - Guendouzi, Basic, Vecino - Isaksen, Dia, Zaccagni. Coach Sarri.
Gimenez is still out for Milan, which is not bad news for the team at all, but the absence of Christian Pulisic definitely is. Milan's top goalscorer is expected to be back in two weeks.
The Betting Market
Milan is a 1.64 favourite and that's a good price. Under 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.72 and that too is a solid bet, as Milan's derbies have almost exclusively been low-scoring this season, and Lazio is no different.
The Betting Verdict
Looking at how Lazio plays on the road, and how bipolar their results are, we think they're heading for a defeat on San Siro. Milan doesn't have a perfect roster, far from it, but this is a courageous team that knows how to win derbies, they've shown that much. Feel free to bet on Milan to win the third derby in a row for 1.64.
But we feel the 1.72 on Under 2.5 Goals is an even better bet, especially because Pulisic won't play and his absence doesn't seem to be factored in the odds.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
AC Milan 2-0 Lazio
