Italian Serie A
2025-11-30 - Atalanta vs Fiorentina
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 13
Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia, Bergamo, Lombardy, Italy (21,747)
Sunday, 30 November 2025, 18:00 CET
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Atalanta Team News
Atalanta got some much needed confidence back with a 0-3 victory against Eintracht Frankfurt in the Champions League, and are hoping that the performance will translate to this duel against Fiorentina. Atalanta is 13th with only 2 wins in 12 rounds, so it would be about time to start performing and winning.
Atalanta's toothless attack, deprived of a #9 player, now finally has a spearhead as Gianluca Scamacca is back from injury. It seems Nikola Krstovic didn't justify his transfer from Lecce so Scamacca is now in charge of converting chances. For a very long time, he was seen as a bad fit for the team as he isn't getting involved in the build up. However, an offensive trio of Lookman, De Keteleare and Scamacca looks just right. It could be the answer we've been waiting for.
Fiorentina Team News
We keep fading Fiorentina yet they keep refusing to lose. They played 1-1 against Juventus against all expectations, so we should probably give them a bit more credit. New coach Vanoli obviously stabilized the team somewhat. A simple look at the lineup shows that Vanoli puts players who work hard and not necessarily those that are good with the ball. As a result, Fiorentina is no longer a team that gets involved in high-scoring matches, but quite the opposite, a stable team that neither scores nor concedes easily.
Probable Lineups
Atalanta (3-4-3): Carnesecchi - Koussounou, Djimsiti, Ahanor - Bellanova, Ederson, Pasalic, Zalewski - De Ketelaere, Scamacca, Lookman. Coach Palladino.
Fiorentina (3-5-2): De Gea - Pongracic, Mari, Ranieri - Fortini, Mandragora, Fagioli, Sohm, Parisi - Piccoli, Kean. Coach Vanoli.
The Betting Market
The price on Atalanta is 1.75 and that sounds just about right. If only Fiorentina would be willing to lose a football match. Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.90 and there would be a lot of value here if Fiorentina was that same old team that plays offensively against everyone. Both Teams To Score: YES is the slightly favoured option at 1.80.
The Betting Verdict
We'd leave the Over/Under and BTTS markets alone. At this point, it's not clear how will Fiorentina approach a derby such as this one, and on the other hand Atalanta also has a new coach so a lot of things have changed here as well.
So let's bet on Atalanta to finally win. They'd be favoured here even if Fiorentina was in a period of good form, as the Viola never performed in derbies. Atalanta has to start winning and this is a good spot for them.
The Pick :
Atalanta 2-1 Fiorentina
