Italian Serie A
2025-12-08 - Udinese vs Genoa
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 14
Stadio Friuli, Udine, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Italy (25,144)
Monday, 08 December 2025, 18:00 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
Udinese Team News
Udinese couldn't resist Bologna and Juventus recently, losing to nil in the league and in the cup respectively, but they'll look to recent wins against Parma, the relegation candidate, and Atalanta at home, for guidance now when they meet Genoa in Udine.
Udinese is perfectly capable of winning against anyone who doesn't control the game well, as this is an offensive-minded side that will take what they're offered. You can't really pinpoint when exactly Udinese will take the three points - they were hurt by 1-1 home draws against Verona and Cagliari this season - but the chance is always there.
Genoa Team News
Genoa had a lot of success recently, after the change of coach, but was then brought back to earth with a 4-0 defeat in the cup against Atalanta.
In four Serie A rounds prior to that cup game, they won against Sassuolo and Verona, and played draws against Fiorentina and Cagliari. All of these teams are relegation candidates or mid-table sides, which would be a group in which Udinese belongs too.
All four games saw both sides score and the totals went over 2.5.
Probable Lineups
Udinese (3-5-2): Okoye - Goglichidze, Kabasele, Solet - Zanoli, Ekkelenkamp, Karlstrom, Atta, Kamara - Buksa, Zaniolo. Coach Runjaic.
Genoa (3-5-2): Leali - Marcandalli, Ostigard, Vasquez - Ellertsson, Frendrup Malinovsky, Thorsby, Martin - Vitinha, Colombo. Coach De Rossi.
The Betting Market
The price on Udinese is 2.53 and we can get 3.40 on Genoa, which actually wouldn't be a bad bet. Over 2.5 Goals is priced at a whopping 2.62, and it makes no sense. Most of Udinese's games end with exactly 2 goals, with a tendency to go Over.
They played only two games with one goal, and none were 0-0. This isn't Pisa here. On the other end is a free-scoring Genoa with an offensive-minded coach.
Both Teams To Score: YES price is 2.05, not bad but there's no value whatsoever in this compared to the 2.62 on Over 2.5 Goals.
The Betting Verdict
As the bookmakers are too kind to offer us 2.62 on the Over, and the expected outcome of all Udinese's matches is exactly two goals, then we'll gladly take the Asian Over 2.0 Goals for 1.90.
We get our stake back if Udinese performs up to their usual standard, and we win the bet if Genoa pushes this game towards the third goal.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Udinese 1-2 Genoa
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Over 2.0 Goals at 1.90 at Bet365
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
My stats have Genoa as the stronger side, despite their lowly current standing, and a change of coach has brought them a 2-2-0 record in 4 Serie A games in November so 3.25 for an away win is a value price.
Genoa 45% likely to win @ 3.27 odds = 146% EV. Worth a very small bet at CLoudbet
Genoa 45% likely to win @ 3.27 odds = 146% EV. Worth a very small bet at CLoudbet
