NFL Football
2025-12-11 - Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : NFL Week 15
Thursday 11th December 2025 - Scheduled 8:15pm
1:15am (British Time)
Preview
Once again, the NFC South looks like it will only be sending one team into the post-season and in recent times the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) have found a way to win the Division. However, a poor defeat in Week 14 has just opened the door for the Carolina Panthers who have the same record as the Buccaneers and those two teams are facing one another twice in the final three weeks of the season.
Those games are likely going to decide the fate of the Division, but the Buccaneers will be keen to find some momentum after recent setbacks. The loss to the New Orleans Saints means the Buccaneers have dropped five of the last seven games and injuries are just taking a toll on the team ahead of this Thursday Night Football game.
Divisional games against the Panthers will be key to the outcome of the NFC South, but that does not mean Tampa Bay can overlook the Atlanta Falcons (4-9) who have confirmed to be having another losing season.
Head Coach Raheem Morris may struggle to hold onto his role at the end of the season, but the Falcons will be keen to bounce back from a blowout loss to the Seattle Seahawks. After upsetting the Buffalo Bills, the Atlanta Falcons have lost seven of eight games played, but they have to be motivated by trying to play spoiler for a long-time dominant Divisional rival.
The game in Week 14 was tied at 6-6 at half time, but the Falcons allowed a Kick Return for a Touchdown and then imploded with turnovers to allow the Seahawks to pull clear.
Veteran Quarter Back Kirk Cousins has struggled since coming in to replace an injured Michael Penix Jr, but he may benefit from handing the ball to Bijan Robinson to try and keep the Offensive unit in a stronger position. The Running Back may have had issues running against the Buccaneers Defensive Line in the past, but over the last few games there have been clear signs that the Tampa Bay front has worn down and that should be a positive for the Falcons.
Of course Kirk Cousins has to prove he can still make the throws needed to keep the chains moving and he is trying to do that without Drake London, who is set to miss out again.
There have been a couple of holes that have opened up in the Buccaneers Secondary as they have struggle to stop the run and this should give Atlanta a chance to at least move the chains with some consistency.
The question in this short week is whether Tampa Bay can at least produce a bit more out of their own Offensive unit, which has let them down a little during this poor run. Baker Mayfield has been playing through an injury, as have the Offensive Line, and the Buccaneers have just found it tough to keep the ball moving as they were perhaps doing earlier this season.
A part of the problem has been the injuries that have piled up around the Quarter Back and the Offensive Line, although the return of Bucky Irving has given the running game a boost.
Tampa Bay could have the likes of Mike Evans back in Week 15 too, which would be a monster addition to the passing game and give Mayfield a target who can make the big catches for him. You cannot be sure that Evans is completely ready and instead his big impact could come in the final three weeks of the regular season, although just having his presence could at least open some spaces for Baker Mayfield's other Receivers.
In recent games the Falcons have at least played the run a little better and that could be key in forcing Baker Mayfield to show his shoulder is not giving him issues after back to back poor passing games. The Falcons Secondary could still make a few stops if the team continue to build the pressure up front if, or when, the Buccaneers are in obvious passing situations and the road team can take advantage of having more than a Field Goal worth of points in this one.
The Buccaneers are 0-7 against the spread when playing at home on Thursday Night Football, while they have already beaten the Falcons this season and that could see the home team suffer a bit of complacency.
Atlanta have won on their last two visits to Tampa Bay- as long as they can avoid making the mistakes that saw the Week 14 game get away from them, the Falcons can keep this close enough on the scoreboard to make the points being given to them earn the cover.
Prediction
Take the points with the road underdog in this Divisional game to open up Week 15.
The Pick :
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20 Atlanta Falcons
