Italian Serie A
2025-12-13 - Atalanta vs Cagliari
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 15
Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia, Bergamo, Lombardy, Italy (21,747)
Saturday, 13 December 2025, 20:45 CET
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Atalanta Team News
Atalanta so obviously rediscovered its form, despite the recent 3-1 defeat at Verona seeming to prove they're still unstable. Such results happen. But the 2-1 win over Chelsea in midweek continues the resurgence that started in the Champions League as well, with a 0-3 win against Eintracht Frankfurt. In the meanwhile, Atalanta also won 2-0 at home against Fiorentina in the league and 4-0 against Genoa in the cup. Things are well again.
Now there's just the small matter of finally starting to win again to climb up the Serie A table. Atalanta only has 3 wins in 14 rounds and is therefore 12th on the league table. However, sides that have lots of draws - Atalanta has seven - tend to go up the table really quickly once they start winning.
Cagliari Team News
Cagliari is actually just one spot behind Atalanta in the league, and could leapfrog Atalanta with a win here. It's not like they can't win against favourites -- they're coming off a 1-0 home win against Roma.
However, that match was at home where Cagliari thrives, and there was the small matter of Roma getting a red card much prior to that winning goal. When it comes to road performances, Cagliari only has one win and is among the worst visitors in the league.
But it's important to note that they don't fall apart. Cagliari only conceded 9 goals in 7 away matches. It's normal for them to lose, but they don't lose big.
Probable Lineups
Atalanta (3-4-3): Carnesecchi - Koussounou, Hien, Djimsiti - Zappacosta, De Roon, Ederson, Zalewski - De Ketelaere, Scamacca, Lookman. Coach Palladino.
Cagliari (4-2-3-1): Caprile - Palestra, Mina, Luperto, Obert - Adopo, Deiola - Palestra, S.Esposito, Folorunsho - Borelli. Coach Pisacane.
The Betting Market
As expected, you can't get rich from betting on Atalanta here as the price is only 1.36. The handicap win is priced at 2.00 but we'd advise against it, Cagliari can stay in games and this won't necessarily be a walkover win.
The Over 2.5 Goals price of 1.72 seems to indicate otherwise. The bookmakers seem to expect a 3-0 or 4-0 win for the home side, and if you believe the same then Both Teams To Score: NO could be a good bet at 1.75.
The Betting Verdict
Indeed, the BTTS-No is a value bet as it doesn't follow the logic of the winner market and the Over/Under market that Atalanta will win this one easily.
In that light, we'll opt for a Win To Nil for the home side. It's one of the trickiest bets in Italy as the underdog always somehow finds a goal, but we still believe resurgent Atalanta will take this without conceding.
The other option would be BTTS-No but why not take the increased odds.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Atalanta 1-0 Cagliari
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Atalanta to Win To Nil at 2.10 at Bet365
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
My spreadsheet does seem to love an underdog and it thinks both the draw and Cagliari are great value once again - as Serie A continues to throw up random 1-0, 0-0 results every round.
However, I am going to suggest a TINY bet on "Cagliari to win to NIL" because it's paying out a staggering 17.00 at Bet365 right now and THAT price just seems way, way off to me.
If Cagliari are going to win then it's going to be a snatch 'n grab 1-0 affair, and looking at the last six h2h if we take win-to-nil then they've actually managed to pay this bet this bet twice here.
However, I am going to suggest a TINY bet on "Cagliari to win to NIL" because it's paying out a staggering 17.00 at Bet365 right now and THAT price just seems way, way off to me.
If Cagliari are going to win then it's going to be a snatch 'n grab 1-0 affair, and looking at the last six h2h if we take win-to-nil then they've actually managed to pay this bet this bet twice here.
