German Bundesliga
2025-12-20 - Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
Volkswagen Arena – Wolfsburg
Saturday, 20th December 2025 - kickoff 15:30 CET
Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg head into this final Bundesliga fixture of 2025 on a high, having beaten both Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 in their last two matches.
The Wolves have shown attacking verve, with over 2.5 goals scored in five of their last six Bundesliga games.
However, they will be without their top scorer, Mohamed Amoura, who is away at the Africa Cup of Nations with Algeria, which could slightly blunt their firepower.
Despite this, Wolfsburg played well in their latest home win, and the team has adapted well under interim coach Daniel Bauer, playing more efficient football that has helped them climb out of the relegation zone.
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg’s road form has been a major weakness this season.
Aside from a 0-3 win in Bremen back in September, they have struggled to get results away from home, managing only a couple of draws and suffering three defeats.
SC Freiburg’s current five-game winless streak on the road is their longest of the year, and they have often struggled to break down well-organized defensive teams.
Coach Julian Schuster will need his side to be more clinical and focused if they hope to snatch points at the Volkswagen Arena. Interestingly, they won both of their last two games played in Freiburg with an identical 0-1.
The Betting Verdict
Wolfsburg has some momentum going after their latest two high wins. The pressure is on SC Freiburg to respond after failing to win their last two Bundesliga games.
It’s a tricky one, but I believe SC Freiburg will remain unbeaten here. Take the double chance bet on SC Freiburg to win or draw the match.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Wolfsburg 0-1 SC Freiburg
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take SC Freiburg to win or draw (X2) at odds of 1.55 with Cloudbet
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
This is a mid-table match with Wolfsburg (9th) hosting Freiburg (13th) with my stats sheet rating the visitors slightly higher at 958 v 969 for a small -12 pt advantage to Freiburg.
Looking back intro the Bundesliga, we found 138 similar games between low rated midtable sides and the result breakdown was HW 33% - D 33% - AW 34% - fair to say it's anyone's game.
Do a quick value assessment with the odds and you'll see that only the highest odds DRAW at 3.60 is positive EV at 119%, and it's hardly a banker bet at 33% or 1 chance in 3.
Still, this is what I do - find value and have a small tickle on a handful of matches expecting the value to eventuate in enough games to make a profit overall.
So it's the DRAW for me taking 3.60 on offer at Bet365
Looking back intro the Bundesliga, we found 138 similar games between low rated midtable sides and the result breakdown was HW 33% - D 33% - AW 34% - fair to say it's anyone's game.
Do a quick value assessment with the odds and you'll see that only the highest odds DRAW at 3.60 is positive EV at 119%, and it's hardly a banker bet at 33% or 1 chance in 3.
Still, this is what I do - find value and have a small tickle on a handful of matches expecting the value to eventuate in enough games to make a profit overall.
So it's the DRAW for me taking 3.60 on offer at Bet365
