Italian Serie A
2025-12-27 - Parma vs Fiorentina
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 17
Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma, Emilia-Romagna, Italy (22,352)
Saturday, 27 December 2025, 12:30 CET
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Parma Team News
Despite a victory here and there - usually against fellow relegation candidates that all seem to be less organized than Parma - this is still a very weak side that will be battling relegation until the final minute of the 2025-26 season. At the moment, Parma is doing well because of the recent victory against Pisa that keeps them two points above the relegation zone, presently.
Parma is a tough little side that would actually play much better football if they had some talent in the final third. But, even though they could play offensively, they choose to be smart about it and be a bit more cautious, as that's the approach that's bringing better results.
Fiorentina Team News
Fiorentina finally got their long awaited first win of the season, the score was 5-1 against Udinese, and it turned out all Fiorentina actually had to wait for was an early red card for the opponent. When that happened (Okoye, 8th minute), the floodgates opened and Fiorentina was quickly 4-0 up.
We can't draw any conclusions from that win, but what we know for sure is that a huge weight has been lifted off Fiorentina players' shoulders. Maybe that's all it takes for a team to start performing according to their ability. We'll see what happens now - will Fiorentina revert to their old performances or will they start winning every week.
Probable Lineups
Parma (3-5-2): Corvi - Delprato, Troilo, Valenti - Britschgi, Bernabe, Keita, Ordonez, Valeri - Cutrone, Pellegrino. Coach Cuesta.
Fiorentina (3-5-2): De Gea - Pongracic, Mari, Ranieri - Dodo, Mandragora, Caviglia, Fagioli, Fortini - Gudmunssson, Kean. Coach Vanioli.
The Betting Market
Fiorentina is the favourite here, 2.43 is the price, and that probably is fair. It would mean that the bookmakers, as well as the general public, think Fiorentina will instantly spring back to life following that 5-1 win and suddenly start performing like a top-six team.
Under 2.5 Goals is the favoured option at 1.66 and it probably makes sense to consider it a better bet than the 2.20 on the Over. On the other hand, the Both Teams To Score market is offering a price of 1.90 on both options.
The Betting Verdict
Options are really limited on this game. You could probably make a case for Parma to do well, as an organized team, against a visitor that is anything but. There's definitely no point in betting on Fiorentina to do well -- that would be a punt on something that has only happened once this season.
Even though Parma doesn't play too many BTTS-Yes games - they either win to nil or lose to nil - we think that the chance is high for that particular outcome here. Fiorentina will run out guns blazing, this will open the game up, and defences in Italy can be lazy after the Christmas feast. BTTS it is.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Parma 1-1 Fiorentina
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Both Teams To Score: YES at 1.90 at Bet365
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Look at that last six game home / away form box above, all red and white lines showing that these teams don't have a win between them for over two months when at home / travelling respectively.
My sheet has these sides very even, just 3 points apart (973 v 970) and in Serie A that usually means looking at the draw bet as it's a high likelihood in Italy (155 games of data shows 34% draws).
However the bookies know this too, and working on a price of 3.00 yesterday the sheet made this only a fair value bet - prices have risen slightly since (now best price of 3.20) but it's only a small edge.
Looking at the form lines Parma are 1-3-4 at the Stadio Ennio Tardini this season and Fiorentina are 0-4-4 on the road, so the DRAW does jump out but "La Viola" have started losing regularly too.
These two sides also drew both Serie A clashes last season as well, it's all pointing to the DRAW isn't it? So I'll take it if I can get 3.10 to 3.20 somewhere reliable.
My sheet has these sides very even, just 3 points apart (973 v 970) and in Serie A that usually means looking at the draw bet as it's a high likelihood in Italy (155 games of data shows 34% draws).
However the bookies know this too, and working on a price of 3.00 yesterday the sheet made this only a fair value bet - prices have risen slightly since (now best price of 3.20) but it's only a small edge.
Looking at the form lines Parma are 1-3-4 at the Stadio Ennio Tardini this season and Fiorentina are 0-4-4 on the road, so the DRAW does jump out but "La Viola" have started losing regularly too.
These two sides also drew both Serie A clashes last season as well, it's all pointing to the DRAW isn't it? So I'll take it if I can get 3.10 to 3.20 somewhere reliable.
