Italian Serie A
2025-12-27 - Torino vs Cagliari
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 17
Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino, Italy (28,177)
Saturday, 27 December 2025, 15:00 CET
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Torino Team News
After failing to beat AC Milan despite holding a 2-0 early lead and a 2-1 half-time lead, Torino won 1-0 against Cremonese and Sassuolo in the two rounds they've played since. This would seem to indicate that Torino is playing well consistently. They have a few bumps in the road, such as the 1-5 home defeat to Como, but generally this is a side that can be expected to show up on game day.
Cagliari Team News
Cagliari isn't the worst visitor in Serie A as the competition for that title is stiff this season. The 1-3-4 away record would probably make Cagliari one of the worst three or four visitors in any season though. At this moment, Fiorentina, Pisa and Verona are worse.
What stands out in Cagliari's record, compared to previous seasons, is that they don't fall apart in any game. They only conceded 11 goals in those 8 away matches, and the Cagliari that we know would probably concede 16+ by now. The defence is more solid now, and this is why Cagliari can sometimes get a point that they don't fully deserve, as was the case with the recent 0-0 result in Como.
Probable Lineups
Torino (3-5-2): Israel - Ismajli, Maripan, Coco - Pedersen, Casadei, Asslani, Vlasic, Lazaro - Adams, Zapata. Coach Baroni.
Cagliari (4-3-2-1): Caprile - Palestra, Mina, Luperto, Obert - Adopo, Prati, Deiola - S.Esposito, Folorunsho - Borelli. Coach Pisacane.
The Betting Market
The price on Torino is 1.95 and this is consistent with the prices we normally get when Torino is hosting a bottom-third team. The trick is to identify the circumstances where Torino will do better than expected.
For comparison, Como got 1.60 against Cagliari and Udinese got 2.15. Neither host won, which is probably the clue to the high price on Torino here.
Under 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.66, and the Both Teams To Score market is more even, with a price of 1.95 for Yes and 1.80 for No.
The Betting Verdict
It's surprising to see such a good price on Torino against a relegation candidate that is a notoriously poor visitor. It's not like we can count on Torino to deliver when favoured, but Torino's chances are much higher than what the 1.95 indicates. This is a team that's found its form and that is playing well recently. Cagliari can't say the same.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Torino 1-0 Cagliari
