Italian Serie A
2025-12-28 - AC Milan vs Hellas Verona
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 17
San Siro, Milano, Lombardy, Italy (80,018)
Sunday, 28 December 2025, 12:30 CET
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AC Milan Team News
Here we are again, in a situation where Milan is hosting a relegation candidate and is expected to win it -- apparently the most difficult scenario for this particular scudetto-chasing side. If Milan v Cremonese 1-2 was an accident, then what were 2-2 results against both Pisa and Sassuolo? Without these incredibly tricky matches on San Siro, Milan would own a 9-3-0 record in the league this season.
Now it's not funny anymore, as Milan ceded the top of the table to Inter because of that Sassuolo result. This is a must-win spot for Milan.
Milan just came back disappointed from the Italian Super Cup, where they played without Modric as it's the Serie A title that they really want. Without #14 it just does not work. He'll play here.
Verona Team News
Verona is now, incredibly, in a mini winning streak of two. First they won at home against Atalanta 3-1 and then they took care of struggling Fiorentina in Florenze 1-2. As a side note, Verona is also in a streak of four BTTS-Yes matches that went Over 2.5 Goals, which will be important for our bet on this particular match.
We keep saying that this is a side that plays attractive, smooth football and that is only let down by their inability to impose themselves and maintain control of a football game.
Probable Lineups
Milan (3-5-2): Maignan - Tomori, De Winter, Pavlovic - Saelemaekers, Loftus-Cheek, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi - Pulisic, Nkunku. Coach Allegri.
Verona (3-5-2): Montipo - Nunez, Nelsson, Valentini - Belghali, Niassi, Al Musrati, Bernede, Frese - Giovane, Mosquera. Coach Zanetti.
The Betting Market
We get 1.38 on Milan after the 1.45 against Sassuolo, so the bookmakers and the general public are unfazed and they see Verona as the weaker opponent. This would be a bad assumption to make.
The goals market is where the value is. We can get 2.10 on Both Teams To Score: YES and 1.80 on Over 2.5 Goals.
The Betting Verdict
You already saw where we're going with this. It was only a question of what odds will we be offered on the BTTS-Yes and Over 2.5, and the bookmakers are far too kind. Both options are very decent bets for the Sunday morning, but we choose the BTTS because of the higher odds and probably a higher chance to go through.
Milan's soft defence won't change overnight. When you pay attention to any member of their defensive trio as they track their player, you'll quickly realize why does this team concede so easily. Verona knows it too, they'll play on the front foot, and they'll score at least one here, just like everyone else.
The Pick :
Milan 2-1 Verona
