English Premier
2025-12-30 - Burnley vs Newcastle United
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Tuesday 30th December 2025 - Kick Off 7:30pm
This game is live on TV
Burnley
Over the last few days, the Burnley players have shown they are still working hard for the manager who has been put under a bit of pressure to find positive results. Performance have been decent against Bournemouth and Everton, but ultimately Burnley have failed to win either game and there is a gap developing between them and safety at the halfway mark of the season.
The side are still 19th in the Premier League table and Burnley are 6 points behind Nottingham Forest outside of the relegation zone. After the draw this past weekend with Everton, Burnley now have a 2-2-5 record at Turf Moor in the Premier League with 7 goals scored and 10 conceded.
Burnley have not won any of their last 9 games, although the points earned in draws with Bournemouth and Everton have snapped a run of 7 consecutive defeats. They had lost 4 straight Premier League games at Turf Moor before ending that run this past weekend.
Maxime Esteve is a doubt, but Hannibal Mejbri is available after serving a suspension, although currently away with Tunisia at the African Cup of Nations. Joe Worrall and Joe Cullen are both doubts.
Newcastle United
For all of the dominance in the second half at Old Trafford against injury-hit Manchester United, Eddie Howe will be extremely disappointed that his Newcastle United team failed to create a lot of quality in the final third. They were getting into positive positions, but Newcastle United were wasteful at best and the defeat continues what has been a miserable season on their travels.
Some pressure has to be building on Eddie Howe with Newcastle United down in 14th place in the Premier League table, although they are much closer to Chelsea in 5th in terms of points rather than West Ham United in the bottom three. The only focus for the manager is helping The Magpies improve the poor 1-3-5 away record in the Premier League where Newcastle United have scored 7 goals and conceded 11.
Newcastle United are struggling for any kind of consistency and they head to the North West for another League fixture having won 1 of the last 5 games in all competitions. The defeat at Old Trafford means Newcastle United have lost 6 of the last 8 away games in all competitions.
The hope is that the likes of Sven Botman, Emil Krafth, Kieran Trippier and Anthony Elanga can be available for selection early in the New Year, but this game is expected to come too soon. Tino Livramento may have to wait a little longer, while Dan Burn is still out.
Head to Head
Newcastle United beat Burnley 2-1 at home earlier this month.
They have won on each of the last 3 visits to Turf Moor.
Prediction
The Premier League fixtures continue to come thick and fast and both Scott Parker and Eddie Howe know they are managing squads stretched by injury.
Burnley have earned back to back draws to show the board that the players are still behind the manager, but Scott Parker will be aware that his team need to find wins. They have been very competitive at home, although there has been an issue in finding the right balance between attack and defence and that has contributed to a poor run.
Of course they are facing an opponent who have been in miserable form away from home all season and Newcastle United have lost 6 of the last 8 fixtures played on their travels.
This includes a 1-0 defeat at Manchester United on Boxing Day when The Magpies had so much of the ball in the second half, but struggled with the final ball. They had been in promising positions, but either a poor decision or a poor pass meant attacks fizzled out and Eddie Howe has to be frustrated with the lack of consistency being produced by his team.
Having an extra day to prepare should help and Newcastle United will be largely pleased with the defensive performances in recent away games.
Eddie Howe will feel his team have enough talent in the final third to expect more from those within the squad and the 2-1 win over Burnley will be a reminder that Newcastle United have the quality to earn the three points.
With the poor away record in mind, the Newcastle United price looks plenty short, but the expectation is that they will be the team with the majority of the ball and who create the best moments.
Burnley had lost 4 in a row here before the draw with Everton and that is hard to ignore with the feeling being The Magpies coming out on top in a game in which they need to score twice to earn the maximum points.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Burnley 0-2 Newcastle United
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Newcastle United to Win & Over 1 Total Goal (Bet Builder) at 1.86 with Bet365 (early payout if a team is leading by two goals)
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Burnley are 19th, and the bookmakers have them as big underdogs to lose again this time to poorly travelling Newcastle.
The home/away from has Burnley at 2-2-5 7:10 at Turf Moor, not great I'll admit, but Newcastle's 1-3-5 7:11 travelling record is actually worse.
These two sides met four weeks ago at St James's Park and Newcastle won comfortably enough (2-1), with a late Burnley penalty little more than a consolation effort.
Statistically, I have Newcastle 49pts (half a goal) better even playing here, but a look at 108 previous games of low ranked teams shows that these are the sort of games relegation threatened sides do actually win with the results coming out HW 36%, Dr 34%, AW 30%.
Burnley beat Leeds Utd here 2-1 in late October, then lost 4 straight before drawing with Everton - but Newcastle are rated BELOW all those 5 opponents. The Geordies are 15th and don't deserve to be short-priced at 1.60ish.
My stats said the 4.00 price on the home win (2 days ago) was value, as was the draw price - but the odds are still climbing now at 5.20 to 5.30 suggesting punters piling in on Newcastle to win and that I've got this wrong and Newcastle will come good.
So perhaps I'll get the draw on my side as well - and take Burnley +0.5 goal (paying out on win or draw) at odds of 2.35+ at Bet365. Leave it until just before kickoff and you might even get 2.50+
The home/away from has Burnley at 2-2-5 7:10 at Turf Moor, not great I'll admit, but Newcastle's 1-3-5 7:11 travelling record is actually worse.
These two sides met four weeks ago at St James's Park and Newcastle won comfortably enough (2-1), with a late Burnley penalty little more than a consolation effort.
Statistically, I have Newcastle 49pts (half a goal) better even playing here, but a look at 108 previous games of low ranked teams shows that these are the sort of games relegation threatened sides do actually win with the results coming out HW 36%, Dr 34%, AW 30%.
Burnley beat Leeds Utd here 2-1 in late October, then lost 4 straight before drawing with Everton - but Newcastle are rated BELOW all those 5 opponents. The Geordies are 15th and don't deserve to be short-priced at 1.60ish.
My stats said the 4.00 price on the home win (2 days ago) was value, as was the draw price - but the odds are still climbing now at 5.20 to 5.30 suggesting punters piling in on Newcastle to win and that I've got this wrong and Newcastle will come good.
So perhaps I'll get the draw on my side as well - and take Burnley +0.5 goal (paying out on win or draw) at odds of 2.35+ at Bet365. Leave it until just before kickoff and you might even get 2.50+
