English Premier
2025-12-30 - Arsenal vs Aston Villa
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Tuesday 30th December 2025 - Kick Off 8:15pm
This game is live on TV
Arsenal
Defensive injuries continue to be an issue for Mikel Arteta, but he will have been very happy to welcome back Gabriel this past weekend in the win over Brighton. It may be too soon to ask the Brazilian to come back in at centre half in this Premier League match against a fellow title contender, and so there are some questions for the manager to address as Arsenal look to move into the New Year with a healthy lead at the top of the table.
The Gunners will finish 2025 as League leaders as long as they not beaten by seven or more goals, but they will be keen to move 5 points clear of Manchester City who are going to play on New Year's Day. The win over Brighton has allowed Arsenal to improve the record at the Emirates Stadium to 8-1-0 in the Premier League this season.
Arsenal are unbeaten in 5 games in all competitions and they have won 4 of those fixtures in normal time with the other being a Penalty Shoot Out win over Crystal Palace in the League Cup Quarter Final. The 2-1 win over Brighton means Arsenal will be chasing a seventh home Premier League win in a row on Tuesday.
Jurrien Timber is a doubt, as is Riccardo Calafiori and Ben White.
Aston Villa
There is little doubt that Aston Villa are currently involved in the Premier League title race, even if manager Unai Emery is downplaying that, and the 1-2 win over Chelsea will have given the players a huge boost in confidence. Ollie Watkins scored twice in that win after coming off the bench and praised Emery's tactical nous in helping Aston Villa turn around a game in which they had clearly been second best for an hour.
Credit has to be given to the manager, the squad and everyone associated with Aston Villa who are 3rd in the Premier League table and who can conclude 2025 by sitting alongside Arsenal at the top of the standings with a victory in North London. That would mean improving the 5-2-2 away record in the top flight where Aston Villa have scored 14 goals and conceded 12.
Aston Villa have won 11 games in a row in all competitions and 8 of those successes have been in the Premier League to progress steadily up the table. The last defeat came in an away game at Anfield, but Aston Villa have since won 5 in a row on their travels in all competitions.
Pau Torres and Tyrone Mings are both hoping to return next week.
Head to Head
A goal in injury time earned Aston Villa a 2-1 win over Arsenal at Villa Park earlier this month.
Since former Arsenal manager Unai Emery took over as Aston Villa manager, the latter have not lost either of the last 2 visits to this part of North London.
They have won once and last season Aston Villa recovered from 2-0 down in a 2-2 draw at the Emirates Stadium.
Prediction
The immediate reaction to the odds is that Arsenal look a little short to beat an Aston Villa team that have given as good as they have got against them since Unai Emery took over at Villa Park.
That includes scoring a late goal to beat Arsenal at home earlier this month and a team that has won 11 in a row in all competitions should have plenty of confidence.
Aston Villa may travel to North London feeling like this is a good time to face Arsenal- as well as the leaders have played and continued to pick up positive results, the defensive injuries have been an issue and Arsenal have also been involved in tighter matches than Mikel Arteta would have hoped.
Goals conceded to Wolves and Brighton in recent outings at the Emirates Stadium have just allowed those two teams to make things nervous for the home fans.
Arsenal will certainly feel they can create chances against Aston Villa considering the recent defensive performances of the visiting team.
Those numbers are not easy to ignore and Chelsea fans will suggest their team would have been out of sight against Aston Villa with better finishing. This Arsenal team have plenty of quality in the final third to believe they can hurt Aston Villa, but the odds look tough in picking a winning side with a lot of confidence.
Instead it may pay to back Morgan Rogers to have a shot on target for Aston Villa at odds against- he is on set pieces for Aston Villa and has been a key figure in the positive run put together by The Villans. The England international continues to get into good positions in the final third and Morgan Rogers is likely going to have at least a couple of opportunities to test David Raya and looks the player that could earn a return without needing to worry about the final result.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Arsenal 2-1 Aston Villa
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Morgan Rogers Over 0.5 Shots on Target at 2.00 with Bet365 (Sub Play On)
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Arsenal are top of the table, and playing well enough with the deep squad (just) covering for a large number of injuries.
The Gunners are winning close games, with the main scorer being "Owen Goal" according to Anne Hathaway #iykyk) despite dominating games the goals are not flowing.
Aston Villa have won 11 games in a row, most of them by a 1-goal margin, but winners are grinners, and Unai Emery's team are happy and Villa fans are laughing their heads off right now.
Aston Villa played and beat Arsenal 2-1 (with the last kick of the game) just 24 days ago, with my sheet picking a HW and Draw as the best EV plays.
It's a similar story again - Arsenal are rated favourites (1138 v 1040) for a margin of 99pts or 1 goal. But again the price on Arsenal is poor, and the price on Aston Villa is oversized.
I've already taken Aston Villa to win @ 7.50 as unlike the ManYoo v Wolves games there is plenty to like about the away side at such big odds.
Even though I'm a Gooner this is value betting - and you can also consider it an insurance bet - if the bet loses then I'm not going to care as I'll be happy with the result.
And if Villa win and payout at this price then it will pay for beers and a very good meal somewhere to help me get over it.
Current prices on Villa are 7.00 at Bet365 (UK), 7.10 at CLoudbet (Eur / asia), +675 at Bookmaker.EU (US) or +600 at @bodog (Can)
The Gunners are winning close games, with the main scorer being "Owen Goal" according to Anne Hathaway #iykyk) despite dominating games the goals are not flowing.
Aston Villa have won 11 games in a row, most of them by a 1-goal margin, but winners are grinners, and Unai Emery's team are happy and Villa fans are laughing their heads off right now.
Aston Villa played and beat Arsenal 2-1 (with the last kick of the game) just 24 days ago, with my sheet picking a HW and Draw as the best EV plays.
It's a similar story again - Arsenal are rated favourites (1138 v 1040) for a margin of 99pts or 1 goal. But again the price on Arsenal is poor, and the price on Aston Villa is oversized.
I've already taken Aston Villa to win @ 7.50 as unlike the ManYoo v Wolves games there is plenty to like about the away side at such big odds.
Even though I'm a Gooner this is value betting - and you can also consider it an insurance bet - if the bet loses then I'm not going to care as I'll be happy with the result.
And if Villa win and payout at this price then it will pay for beers and a very good meal somewhere to help me get over it.
Current prices on Villa are 7.00 at Bet365 (UK), 7.10 at CLoudbet (Eur / asia), +675 at Bookmaker.EU (US) or +600 at @bodog (Can)
