Italian Serie A
2026-01-07 - Lazio vs Fiorentina
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 19
Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Lazio, Italy (70,634)
Wednesday, 07 January 2026, 20:45 CET
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Lazio Team News
Lazio has now won only one of last five Serie A matches, and hasn't scored more than once in any game. We could say this is fairly consistent with what we know about this Lazio -- they're struggling to score more than once and now it will be more difficult when their best offensive player and goalscorer Taty Castellanos left for West Ham. Expect Lazio to always be on the brink of remaining scoreless. It will be either zero goals or one goal for them, regardless of the opponent.
On the defensive end they can no longer hold their own and therefore get the desired 1-0 win. In a period when they could do that, they looked like scudetto candidates. But this is no longer the case; this team is in a downtrend after Maurizio Sarri stabilized the team early on after joining the club. Now, he's just enough to keep Lazio in games but he can't win them - the players must and they're unable to do so.
Fiorentina Team News
Fiorentina's 1-0 win at home against Cremonese was well-deserved despite the winning goal coming in the 92nd minute. Whoever was watching the game would say that the goal was bound to come. It was an onslaught of Cremonese's goal and it was just a matter of time before Fiorentina finds the net.
Now things will be much more difficult for Fiorentina as they'll be playing against a much better side, and they'll be doing that on the road instead of on their home stadium. But with this same level of effort, Fiorentina can do well against anyone in this league. What remains to be seen is whether the tactics are polished enough to bring results against the good sides.
Fiorentina is still in the relegation zone, but their problems seem to be gone, they'll climb out of it soon enough.
Probable Lineups
Lazio (4-3-3): Provedel - Lazzari, Gila, Romagnoli, Pellegrini - Guendouzi, Cataldi, Basic - Cancellieri, Pedro, Zaccagni. Coach Sarri.
Fiorentina (4-1-4-1): De Gea - Dodo, Comuzzo, Pongracic, Gosens - Fagioli - Parisi, Mandragora, Ndour, Gudmunssson - Kean. Coach Vanioli.
All of Lazio's problems can be seen from having to field 38-year-old Pedro as the centre forward.
The Betting Market
The bookmakers quickly realized Lazio is going down and Fiorentina is going places, as the price on the home side is 2.50. We thought they'll offer us something like 1.80 on Lazio.
Under 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.61, while Both Teams To Score market offers 1.95 on YES and 1.80 on NO.
The Betting Verdict
Sometimes you have to go for it and place a bet that you believe in.
The usual choice in this situation, where you believe the underdog will do well, would be to bet on BTTS-Yes but we don't really trust Lazio to deliver.
Instead, we'll take a punt on Fiorentina and their newly discovered vigour. Fiorentina has a real chance to win here.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Lazio 0-1 Fiorentina
