Italian Serie A
2026-01-11 - Lecce vs Parma
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 20
Stadio Via del mare, Lecce, Apulia, Italy (40,670)
Sunday, 11 January 2026, 12:30 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
Lecce Team News
If we'd take away the wins against Pisa and Fiorentina - which is the same that Parma has - Lecce wouldn't be left with much. They'd still have the 0-1 away win against their today's opponents and a home win against Torino, but all in all this is really poor. Lecce is a point behind Parma in league standings, at the 17th place, four points clear of the relegation zone.
Parma Team News
Parma is doing well lately as they keep losing to better sides but are getting results against fellow relegation candidates. They even defeated Fiorentina 1-0 at home, taking the opportunity to claim points against a depressed side at the time. They also won 0-1 at Pisa and 1-2 at Verona. You could say that Parma is doing well now, but their easy schedule has a big role here.
Probable Lineups
Lecce (4-3-3): Falcone - Veiga, Gaspar, Tiago Gabriel, Gallo - Kaba, Ramadani, Maleh - Pierotti, Camarda, Banda. Coach Del Rosso (Di Francesco suspended).
Parma (3-5-2): Corvi - Delprato, Troilo, Valenti - Britschgi, Bernabe, Keita, Ordonez, Valeri - Cutrone, Pellegrino. Coach Cuesta.
The Betting Market
Let's start with the obvious and say that the price on Under 2.5 Goals is 1.50. These prices would seem ridiculous in any other league, but this season in Serie A they've become the norm after the minimal price was around 1.60 the season before.
The Both Teams To Score market is more conventional, with 2.05 for Yes and 1.70 for No. The winner market is predictably set at 3.00-3.00-3.00 or similar. You get 2.83 on Lecce and 2.96 on Parma.
The Betting Verdict
What's crazy about Lecce and Parma is that neither team loses to relegation candidates - unless the relegation candidate is Cagliari, which defeated them both. It usually takes a special effort to beat Lecce or Parma and only the top sides can produce it.
When Lecce and Parma meet, all stats can be thrown down the drain, as the match is unique. For example, these two are known to be low-scoring yet when they meet it's usually a goal fest. Three of the last four had at least 4 goals.
And that means this is a solid opportunity to make a value bet, solely because the odds are set the way they are. Under 2.5 Goals for 1.50 doesn't make any sense at all, as we see time and time again in Serie A that when two underish sides meet the game usually has lots of goals. It's not a rule, but it's happening often enough to make a punt on 2.62 on Over 2.5 Goals worthwhile. When you see it, take it. The game will either finish 0-0 or something like 2-2.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Lecce 2-2 Parma
