Italian Serie A
2026-01-11 - Fiorentina vs AC Milan
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 20
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florenze, Tuscany, Italy (43,147)
Sunday, 11 Janaury 2026, 15:00 CET
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Fiorentina Team News
Fiorentina's slump is over but they're still not a side that will simply defeat everyone in this league. They almost won on the road against Lazio in their first real test after waking up from the nightmare that was 0 wins in 15 rounds, but they couldn't hold onto a 1-2 late lead. Now Fiorentina gets to play another top side, arguably one that will accept an even more open game. 2-2 against Lazio, a low-scoring BTTS-No side, speaks volumes about the offensive nature of this new Fiorentina. They will play offensively here against Milan too.
Milan Team News
Rafael Leao at least saved his team the 2nd spot on the league table with that 92nd-minute equalizer against Genoa, as they'd drop down the rankings behind Napoli on goal difference if he hasn't scored, but it was yet another pathetic result for AC Milan. Cremonese, Pisa, Parma, Genoa. That's the list of relegation candidates that this scudetto candidate has failed to beat so far.
The reasons are as follows. Milan's defence repeatedly falls asleep against the lesser sides, while on the other end the uncreative offense struggles to score against sides that sit deep.
Incredibly, Milan is still 2nd on the league table despite dropping 9 points in those four matches, but Inter started to run away (they're 3 points ahead) and now a win here in Florenze is a must for Rossoneri.
Nicolas Fullkrug is now at AC Milan but even if he proves to be the clinical finisher Allegri was looking for, glaring issues in defence and offensive midfield will remain.
Probable Lineups
Fiorentina (4-1-4-1): De Gea - Dodo, Comuzzo, Pongracic, Gosens - Fagioli - Parisi, Mandragora, Sohm, Gudmunssson - Kean. Coach Vanioli.
Milan (3-5-2): Maignan - De Winter, Gabbia, Pavlovic - Saelemaekers, Loftus-Cheek, Ricci, Rabiot, Bartesaghi - Pulisic, Leao. Coach Allegri.
Modric is doubtful for Milan, and Tomori is suspended. Fiorentina will shuffle the lineup as well as the formation.
The Betting Market
Milan's win is priced at 2.02, which would be a nice price if Modric was healthy, if Fullkrug was in full swing, and if Milan had at least one concentrated and physically imposing defender.
Both Teams To Score: YES is priced at 1.80 but on the other hand it's the Under 2.5 Goals that's the favoured option at 1.80 compared to 2.00 for the Over.
The Betting Verdict
Will Fiorentina too be able to capitalize on Milan's soft defending? Likely. Tomori isn't perfect but he's the toughest defender in Milan, which means De Winter is a downgrade and Gabbia at the heart of defence won't scare anyone. Fiorentina will score.
This will be a difficult match for Milan. First they must hold their own without Modric if he isn't in the starting lineup, and then potentially win the game without him if he can't go at all. Both sides will score and Milan will be closer to grabbing that second goal.
Over 2.5 Goals for 2.00 would also be a very good bet, especially if Modric doesn't play, as he's slowing the game down and moving the pendulum in Milan's favour.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Fiorentina 1-2 Milan
