German Bundesliga
2026-01-14 - RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
Red Bull Arena – Leipzig
Wednesday, 14th January 2026 - kickoff 20:30 CET
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig’s trip to play St.Pauli was cancelled last weekend because of heavy snow in Hamburg, so this is their first game of the year. A little more time to prepare and start the year well, after ending 2025 with back-to-back defeats against Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen.
RB Leipzig sits third in the table before this round, and should be very motivated against SC Freiburg, whom they have beaten six times in their last seven meetings. The last time RB Leipzig lost to SC Freiburg was in the 2019/20 Bundesliga season.
Most of their direct duels were high-scoring, and the goal trend is obvious in RB Leipzig’s recent matches – all their last three games ended with 3+ goals.
Beating SC Freiburg is a must, especially with the game against the champions Bayern Munich coming up in a few days.
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg achieved an unconvincing 2-1 win over Hamburger SV in their first game of this year, but a win is a win. That was their third unbeaten game in a row, and a third win in the last five Bundesliga matches (just one defeat).
SC Freiburg is at mid-table, but European places are within reach, so they should be quite motivated in this game.
As with RB Leipzig’s games, SC Freiburg’s Bundesliga matches in recent weeks and months featured many goals. There were three or more scored in six of their last seven Bundesliga games.
The Betting Verdict
RB Leipzig has six wins in seven home games this season, with the only loss coming against Bayer Leverkusen.
On the other side, SC Freiburg won only once in their last six away matches, losing three times and drawing twice.
RB Leipzig should be eager to start the year strongly and keep up with Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund at the top, so take them to win the match at good odds.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
RB Leipzig 2-1 SC Freiburg
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take RB Leipzig to win at odds of 1.80 with Bet365
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
If you like an early bet at good prices then taking RB LEipzig to win here is the value play as Niko has suggested.
Leipzig had won six home games in a row before stumbling 1-3 to Leverkusen last time out just before Christmas, and they're a strong side at home - rated 1132 by my sheets and fully a goal and a half better than Freiberg.
My stats say that 132 previous Bundesliga games in the last 20 years have had similar ratings and 63% of them finished as a home win so the 1.80 on offer at Bet365 offers 113% of EV and is a good bet.
A small exact score wager on Leipzig 3-1 might be the "cherry on top" given recent history and it's paying 13.00 at Bet365 and BetFred which is surprising given the stats and the fact it's hit in this fixture on each of the last 3 occasions.
Leipzig had won six home games in a row before stumbling 1-3 to Leverkusen last time out just before Christmas, and they're a strong side at home - rated 1132 by my sheets and fully a goal and a half better than Freiberg.
My stats say that 132 previous Bundesliga games in the last 20 years have had similar ratings and 63% of them finished as a home win so the 1.80 on offer at Bet365 offers 113% of EV and is a good bet.
A small exact score wager on Leipzig 3-1 might be the "cherry on top" given recent history and it's paying 13.00 at Bet365 and BetFred which is surprising given the stats and the fact it's hit in this fixture on each of the last 3 occasions.
