Italian Serie A
2026-01-12 - Genoa vs Cagliari
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 20
Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa, Liguria, Italy (33,205)
Monday, 12 January 2026, 18:30 CET
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Genoa Team News
It takes a trained eye to read through the stats, which is why you're reading GoonersGuide.com. A casual punter will see in Genoa a relegation candidate that is in a five-game winless streak, but the truth is a bit deeper.
Since Genoa fired coach Vieira (10 Serie A rounds), it only lost to Roma, Atalanta and Inter, and their matches average 3.10 goals per game, with Genoa contributing at least a goal in nine of those ten games. Atalanta is the only one that kept a clean sheet against this offensive-minded team guided by Daniele De Rossi.
Genoa played four relegation candidates lately and won twice (Sassuolo 1-2, Verona 2-1) while drawing the other two fixtures (Cagliari 3-3, Pisa 1-1). Genoa no longer looks like a relegation candidate but a mid-table team -- despite not having enough points to show it just yet. They will, soon.
Cagliari Team News
Here is yet another side that enjoys offensive football and goals on both ends if they can help it. Genoa has four overs in their last five outings in Serie A, and even managed a 2-2 draw with Cremonese in the previous round.
This side will play open football when the opponent is right, but on the other hand they only start playing when they concede. They need that first goal to get going. In the above Cremonese example, Cremonese scored in the 4th minute and took a 2-0 lead to half-time. Cagliari then went gung ho and equalized.
Something similar happened in the 2-2 at home against Pisa, where the visitors scored in the final minute of the first half for 0-1, Cagliari overturned it to 2-1, only to see a late equalizer.
This is a very common outcome of Cagliari's matches, yet the bookmakers don't see it, and they keep offering high prices on Over 2.5 Goals as we'll find out below.
Probable Lineups
Genoa (3-5-2): Leali - Marcandalli, Ostigard, Vasquez - Norton-Cuffy, Frendrup, Malinovsky, Ellertsson, Martin - Vitinha, Colombo. Coach De Rossi.
Cagliari (4-3-2-1): Caprile - Zappa, Rodriguez, Luperto, Idrissi - Adopo, Prati, Mazzitelli - S.Esposito, Palestra - Kilicsoy. Coach Pisacane.
The Betting Market
We get 2.62 on Over 2.5 Goals in a fixture that produced six goals in a 3-3 draw in late November on Sardinia. Yet for some reason the bookmakers are certain this will be a toothless event as the price on the Under is 1.50, which is rock bottom for Serie A oddsmakers.
Both Teams To Score: YES is also offering value at 2.05, while Genoa's win is rewarded only with 2.09 despite not really showing they can beat anyone or/and hold on until the end without conceding an equalizer.
The Betting Verdict
We won the 2.62 on Over 2.5 Goals on Lecce v Parma on Sunday and will hit it again here.
The difference is that this isn't really a punt as both Genoa and Cagliari are offensive-minded teams that simply can't play their brand of football with success against the top half of Serie A.
But when they meet each other, the floodgates get open. Four of the last five meetings had 3+ goals. The odd one out was a 1-1.
This is a no brainer, bet on the Over. Even the Over 1.5 Goals is offering a decent price of 1.50.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Genoa 3-2 Cagliari
