Champions League
2026-01-28 - Benfica vs Real Madrid
A Sports Betting Pick by Gladiator
Football: Champions League - League phase - Round 8
Estádio da Luz (Lisbon), Portugal
Wednesday, 28th January 2026 - Kick Off 21:00 CET
Benfica
Benfica enter this decisive European night knowing the equation is simple: win, and hope the other results fall their way. Anything less, and their European journey ends before the knockout phase. It hasn’t been a smooth UCL campaign for José Mourinho’s side, who lost their first four group matches and left themselves with a mountain to climb. A brief revival with two straight victories suggested the tide was turning, but their 2-0 defeat to Juventus on matchday seven put them right back under pressure.
Still, confidence is not entirely broken. A commanding 4-0 Liga Portugal win over Estrela at the weekend helped steady the mood, and Benfica return to a venue where they’ve been strong lately, just one defeat in their last seven home matches, with four wins in that sequence. That combination of urgency, crowd energy and improving home form should make them a lively opponent for the Spanish giants.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid travel to Lisbon with a last-16 place within touching distance, already secure in the play-off spots but aiming to skip that extra round. The start of the season was turbulent, but under interim boss Álvaro Arbeloa, the team has regained stability and purpose. Three consecutive wins, including a composed 2-0 victory away at Villarreal, have quieted the noise around the club and pulled them back to within a point of Barcelona in La Liga.
Yet the doubts about their away form in Europe linger. Madrid’s last four Champions League road games have produced a win-loss-win-loss pattern, and their defensive absences, particularly at centre-back, continue to make them a little fragile outside the Bernabéu. Even so, their firepower and attacking rhythm should ensure they pose constant problems for Benfica over the 90 minutes.
Betting Verdict
Both sides have strong motivation, big personalities on the touchline, and real attacking quality. Benfica look revitalised at home, while Real Madrid generally find their goals regardless of venue, especially in Europe. Given Madrid’s inconsistent away defensive record and Benfica’s need to chase the win, this matchup has all the ingredients for both sides to find the net.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Benfica 1-2 Real Madrid
